The National Bank of Ukraine has set the official foreign exchange rates for Wednesday, October 28, 2026. The U.S. currency has risen in price again, hitting a new historic high for its official exchange rate, while the European currency, conversely, has returned to a decline. The divergent dynamics of the two major currencies against the backdrop of stable trading volumes in the interbank market have prompted an expert analysis of the reasons behind the rate movement.
What the regulator has set
According to the National Bank, the official dollar exchange rate for October 28 is 45.60 UAH. This is 7 kopecks higher than the figure of the previous business day—Tuesday, October 27, when the American currency cost 45.53 UAH. This new level has become a historic maximum for the official dollar rate. The official euro rate, by contrast, has decreased: for October 28, it stands at 50.85 UAH, which is 10 kopecks less than the previous business day, when the European currency was valued at 50.95 UAH.
Why the dollar continues to rise
One of the possible reasons for the rise in the dollar exchange rate is uncertainty surrounding international financing, Taras Kozak, founder and president of the UNIVER investment group, said in a comment to RBC-Ukraine. According to him, Ukraine needs financial support from international partners—specifically the European Union and the International Monetary Fund—both for the remainder of the current year and for the next. At the same time, receiving these funds requires meeting a number of partner requirements, and the authorities' readiness to move in this direction, in the expert's assessment, is not yet sufficient.
Some obligations have already been fulfilled, particularly regarding the taxation of parcels and other technical issues. However, in the area of anti-corruption, where Ukraine has also made commitments, progress is lacking: relevant draft laws, according to Kozak, are not being introduced or submitted for a vote in the Verkhovna Rada. The expert believes this may be one of the few significant changes in recent months affecting the expectations of foreign exchange market participants.
Trading volumes and the potential role of the regulator
Kozak notes that trading volumes in the interbank foreign exchange market have not increased significantly and remain at roughly the same level, while the dollar exchange rate has climbed to 45 hryvnias and above with the same trading volumes as before. The expert sees no significant changes in the situation at the front or in the level of support for Ukraine from the U.S. and Europe, and therefore, in his view, these factors do not explain the current exchange rate movement. Kozak suggests that the National Bank may be testing how the currency market will react to higher exchange rate levels, but emphasizes that this is only one possible interpretation of the situation rather than a confirmed explanation of the regulator's actions.
Context: 2026 budget and global factors
The rise in the official exchange rate is occurring against a broader context. Ukraine's state budget for 2026 sets the average projected dollar exchange rate at 45.7 UAH, meaning the current official rate has already approached the figure embedded in the budget. On global markets, the American currency is strengthening: according to business publications, the euro recently dropped to a 17-month low against the dollar amid concerns over the state of France's public finances and the potential economic consequences of high oil prices. The combination of these factors creates pressure on the hryvnia exchange rate, which the regulator and market participants take into account when forming the official rate.
