Dollar to hold in the 44.6–45.2 UAH range: expert from Globus Bank forecasts the exchange rate for early September

The Ukrainian foreign exchange market in early September 2026, according to experts, will continue to move within the trends established in August, although pressure on the hryvnia rate may intensify due to rising import demand and additional business expenses. This was stated in a comment to RBC-Ukraine by Taras Lesovoy, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activities Department of Globus Bank. According to his forecast, the dollar on the interbank market will trade in the 44.6–45.1 UAH corridor during the first week of September, while on the cash market the range may be somewhat wider — 44.6–45.2 UAH. The euro, in turn, is expected to stay within 51–52.5 UAH both on the interbank market and at retail exchange offices.

Import demand to exceed supply by 15–20%

The key factor that could put pressure on the rate in early September remains the sustained demand for currency from importers. According to Taras Lesovoy's estimate, during the first week of September, demand on the interbank market may exceed supply by approximately 15–20%. This imbalance is driven by the seasonal increase in imports, the need to replenish stocks ahead of the heating season, and businesses' overall costs for logistics and security. The expert emphasizes that it is precisely this structural shortage of currency supply that is the main source of volatility in the coming weeks.

Russian strikes and the inflation "flywheel"

A separate but no less significant factor remains the aftermath of Russian strikes on infrastructure. According to Lesovoy, they not only cause direct damage but also substantially increase enterprises' operating costs: businesses have to change logistics routes, invest in backup power, protect production facilities, and secure transportation. "Part of these expenses may gradually be reflected in consumer prices. In other words, the inflation flywheel may start turning more noticeably than in August," the expert noted. Thus, the rate dynamics in September will be closely linked not only to currency flows but also to domestic price pressure.

The role of the NBU: managed flexibility and weekly interventions of $850 million – $1 billion

Despite the possible shortage of currency supply, Lesovoy draws attention to the stabilizing role of the National Bank of Ukraine. The Ukrainian foreign exchange market has been operating under a managed flexibility model for nearly three years: the NBU compensates for the currency shortage with its own sales, balancing supply and demand on the interbank market. According to the expert's forecast, the regulator's weekly volume of currency interventions in early September may amount to approximately $850 million – $1 billion. "This is why one should not expect a direct mathematical relationship of the kind 'demand rose — the rate shot up,'" he explained. It is precisely the NBU's active presence in the market that smooths out peak surges in demand and prevents the rate from moving beyond the established corridors.

Spreads at exchange offices and the psychological factor

Short-term waves of elevated demand for cash currency in early September are quite likely. They may be influenced simultaneously by news of shelling, rising fuel prices, and the approaching heating season. In such a situation, according to Lesovoy, not only the rate itself but also the difference between the buying and selling rates may change. Exchange offices may widen the spread to 1–1.3 UAH or even more, effectively baking clients' psychological nervousness into their own margin. The expert warns: if currency is being purchased as a long-term savings vehicle, waiting a few days will often change nothing fundamental. At the same time, reacting to reports of an allegedly record rise in the dollar may lead to buying currency at exactly the moment when the seller has maximally raised its price.

Forecast of daily and weekly fluctuations

According to Lesovoy's detailed forecast, daily changes in the rate in early September may reach up to 0.05–0.15 UAH on the interbank market, up to 0.1–0.2 UAH at commercial banks, and up to 0.3 UAH at exchange offices. Average weekly rate deviations are expected to stay within 1–1.5% of the week's starting rate. The cost of fuel will remain a separate factor, depending both on Ukrainian logistics and security risks and on the situation in the global oil market. According to the expert, the main role in restraining excessive rate fluctuations will continue to be played by the NBU, which compensates for the shortage of currency supply with its interventions.