The El Niño climate phenomenon, according to assessments by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), is rapidly gaining strength and is highly likely to cause new temperature records. UN Secretary-General António Guterres stated that the phenomenon is "growing right before our eyes," while the planet has found itself in "unchartered waters" that continue to warm. Preliminary WMO estimates suggest that the current cycle could be the most powerful in at least the last thousand years — making the situation unprecedented in terms of the instrumentally observed climate history.
Figures That Are Alarming
Specific WMO data show that ocean temperature in the El Niño formation zone already exceeds the 30-year reference average by 2.6°C. Moreover, by November 2026 the anomaly is forecast to reach around 4°C. For comparison: it is precisely the exceedance of threshold anomaly values in the equatorial Pacific that determines the transition of the phenomenon from a neutral phase to a full El Niño phase, while its further growth places the cycle in the "strong" and "super El Niño" categories, which is directly linked to a global rise in average temperature and an increase in extreme weather events.
How Long the Phenomenon Will Last and What Comes Next
According to meteorologists' forecasts, the current El Niño cycle is expected to persist until February 2027. It is important to understand, however, that the consequences of the climate phenomenon do not end with it: droughts, floods, and waves of extreme heat will continue to be felt well into 2027. This means that even after the phenomenon itself weakens, its "tail" will continue to affect the hydrological regime, water resources, and the agricultural cycle in a number of regions of the world.
Consequences Are Already Being Felt Worldwide
The impact of the strengthening El Niño is already being recorded: from large-scale forest fires in Indonesia to weakened monsoon rains in India, which threaten harvests and the water balance in some of the most populous countries on the planet. The World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that, due to El Niño, around 50 million people could face acute hunger. Thus, the climate phenomenon is turning into a factor of food security and humanitarian pressure on vulnerable regions.
Impact on Ukraine's Agriculture
Weather contrasts and temperature "swings" associated with heat waves and moisture deficits are already affecting the agricultural sector: as Ukrainian media noted, they have influenced both the ripening of late crops and the preparation for winter sowing. For a country where agriculture is a key industry of the economy, the combination of local weather anomalies with the global strengthening of El Niño creates additional risks for yields and the logistics of the 2026–2027 sowing campaign.
