The European energy market is heading into the heating season in a state of alarm. As of the last week of August 2026, the EU's underground gas storage facilities were filled to only 63%, whereas the average level for the end of August in previous years was around 80%. Analysts are already talking about a so-called "winter panic" among traders: low stock levels raise the risk of sharp price volatility during the winter, and the European benchmark gas price has climbed to a three-year high in recent weeks — more than 68 euros per megawatt-hour, which is more than double the level at the start of the year.
Stocks at a Multi-Year Low
According to gas market analyst Professor Greg Molyneux, at current injection rates the European Union is likely to enter the heating season with stocks roughly a fifth below the five-year average. The expert emphasizes that low gas levels in storage automatically increase the risk of significant price volatility in winter. The situation could worsen in the event of a cold snap or prolonged periods of weak wind, when gas consumption rises and "green" energy production falls.
Contradictory Data
Publications in different outlets disagree on the exact date to which the current minimum is being measured. A number of sources (including RBC-Ukraine and news.am) describe the situation as "the lowest stock level in 13 years," i.e. since 2013, which matches Greg Molyneux's assessment. At the same time, Reuters, citing its own data, reports that gas stocks in the EU have fallen to their lowest level since 2011, while some media outlets (finance.mail.ru) call the current figure an "all-time low." Thus, the fact of record-low storage filling is confirmed by all parties, but the precise time reference (2011, 2013, or an absolute minimum) does not match across open sources, and readers should keep this discrepancy in mind when interpreting the figures.
Causes of the Low Stock Level
Several factors have contributed to the current picture. First, a cold end to last winter led to more intensive use of gas from storage, meaning the facilities had to be replenished from a lower level in spring. Second, during the European heatwave in summer, demand for electricity rose, and gas-fired power plants generated more electricity than usual, consuming additional fuel. An additional factor was the war in the Middle East, which disrupted energy supplies from the Persian Gulf region and affected gas purchase volumes. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, without a resumption of gas exports from the Middle East, the European benchmark price could exceed 100 euros per megawatt-hour in order to attract sufficient volumes of liquefied natural gas to meet winter demand.
UK Vulnerability and Cross-Country Spread
Low gas stocks in the EU could affect prices not only within the bloc. The United Kingdom may prove especially vulnerable to market swings: the country is one of the largest gas consumers in Europe while having one of the lowest levels of its own storage capacity, and it usually relies on pipeline imports from Europe as well as tanker supplies from the US and Middle Eastern countries. Centrica CEO Chris O'Shea stated this week that there is "almost no gas in storage" in the UK ahead of winter. Meanwhile, The Guardian notes that Europe does not yet expect a physical gas shortage in winter, although traders forecast further price increases.
Differences Within the EU and Ukraine's Position
The stock situation is particularly difficult in Western Europe. In Germany, which has the largest gas storage capacity in Europe, the facilities are filled to about half. At the same time, Italy and Poland have managed to fill their storage to more than 80%, making them relatively protected against price shocks. Against the backdrop of the European "winter panic," Ukraine is reporting readiness for the heating season: according to Deputy Prime Minister and Energy Minister Denis Shmyhal, gas has already been stockpiled for the baseline scenario of getting through winter.
