Former head of British intelligence MI6 John Sawers stated that peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia could begin in 2027, although the conclusion of a serious agreement between the parties by spring of that year is unlikely. This was reported by RBC-Ukraine, citing the Financial Times. According to Sawers, both countries are facing a "heavy winter," but the accumulation of military and economic losses may create the conditions for negotiations to begin the following year.
Forecast: A Full Agreement No Earlier Than 2027
Sawers emphasized that a serious agreement between Kyiv and Moscow is unlikely to be discussed before the spring of 2027. At the same time, he noted that a stable peace is virtually impossible as long as Vladimir Putin remains president of Russia. In his assessment, the most realistic outcome in the near term may not be a full peace agreement, but a return to the level of hostilities that existed after 2014, or merely a reduction in the intensity of fighting as the nearest realistic goal.
"Heavy Winter" and the Rising Cost of War
In the view of the former MI6 chief, an opportunity for productive negotiations on a ceasefire may emerge in 2027 if the cost of war rises for both sides and Russian forces fail to restore their previous pace of advance at the front. In that case, he said, Moscow may be more interested in finding a way out of the war. Sawers also spoke positively of the very fact of dialogue between Washington and Moscow, stating that the US should continue contacts with Putin, though he expressed doubt about the effectiveness of the American negotiators, naming the unchanging, excessive demands of the Russian side as the main problem.
Internal Signals from Moscow and Kyiv
As a signal that within the Russian system the cost of war is being discussed more openly, Sawers cited events of the past month, when the Kremlin dismissed the chief economist of one of the largest state financial institutions after his remarks on the consequences of Ukrainian strikes. The economist had noted that the losses from Ukrainian attacks are turning into a noticeable macroeconomic obstacle to the growth of the Russian economy. At the same time, Sawers pointed to problems within Ukraine as well: in his words, the country has seen politicians and influential figures who are beginning to question the authority of President Volodymyr Zelensky. Last month, Zelensky dismissed one of his key aides after anti-corruption authorities searched her home.
Context: Visit of US Envoys to Moscow
Sawers' remarks came against the backdrop of a visit to Moscow by special envoys of US President Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. President Donald Trump stated that they had arrived in Russia with a "proposal to end the war," without revealing the details of the American plan or indicating whether the Kremlin was ready to agree to any compromises. As RBC-Ukraine reported, on the eve Witkoff and Kushner held a conversation with the Russian leadership in Moscow.
