According to The Washington Post, as cited by RBC-Ukraine, Russia ramped up the intensity of its aerial strikes on Ukraine immediately after a secret visit by CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow. According to the outlet, during the trip the head of the US intelligence service tried to convey to Vladimir Putin's inner circle that further escalation would only worsen Russia's position, but in the Kremlin this signal, sources claim, was read differently.
Secret Visit and Washington's Warning
According to the Washington Post, Ratcliffe met with FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov to deliver a message about the need to stop. As a source familiar with the content of the discussions told the outlet, the gist was roughly this: “Things are not going very well for you. It's time to talk. Let's work this out, because in six months, a year, it will be even worse for you.” In this way, Washington tried to flag in advance the risks of prolonging the conflict for Moscow.
How Moscow Read the Signal
In the Russian leadership, according to the same outlet's sources, calls for restraint were perceived not as an argument but as a sign of weakness on the American side. “Russia viewed the visit as an attempt to persuade Putin to stop, but Putin viewed it as weakness,” a Washington Post source stated. Russian analysts and sources among the elites cited in the material note that Putin remains convinced of his own victory and rejects freezing the war along the current front line.
Escalation of Strikes on Infrastructure
Immediately after the meetings, according to the outlet, Russia stepped up around-the-clock missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities, the power grid, water supply, and food warehouses. Recently, Putin publicly stated: “I have no doubt that the enemy will collapse.” According to experts, the key condition for the Kremlin to continue negotiations remains the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the territory of the Donbas, and the winter strikes and resource shortages are calculated to provoke public discontent and force Kyiv to capitulate.
Negotiation Track: Witkoff and Kushner
Against the backdrop of the escalation, special representatives of US President Donald Trump, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are preparing to visit Kyiv and Moscow to resume peace negotiations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Trump's negotiators will arrive in Kyiv on September 6, and emphasized that during this visit the Russian side must fully halt the shelling and aerial attacks. Meanwhile, media reports emerged that the US asked Ukraine to refrain from strikes on Russian energy infrastructure while American envoys are in the region, for the safety of the negotiation process.
Contradictory Data
Assessments of the outcome of Ratcliffe's visit differ across sources. The American side, according to the Washington Post, positions the trip as a warning and an attempt at de-escalation, while the Russian side, according to the same data, interprets it as weakness and uses it to increase pressure. Moreover, the direct causal link between the secret meeting and the sharp rise in shelling relies primarily on sources from a single outlet and has not yet been confirmed by independent data. Finally, the demand that Ukraine limit strikes on Russian energy infrastructure during the mediators' visit, combined with the simultaneous call for Russia to cease attacks, creates a contradictory picture of which side is actually bearing obligations in the negotiation window.
Economy and the Bet on Exhaustion
At the same time, the Russian economy, according to experts, is under serious strain from the war and sanctions pressure. Nevertheless, the Kremlin, as the material notes, expects that with the support of high oil prices, Russia is capable of waging a war of attrition longer than Ukraine. It is on this calculation, analysts believe, that the strategy of winter escalation of strikes is based.
