On Thursday, July 30, a significant change in the dynamics of major currencies was recorded in the Ukrainian foreign exchange market. The long-term trend of strengthening the US currency was interrupted, while the Euro, conversely, resumed its growth. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) set official exchange rates that signal a change in the rhythm of the financial market.

Dollar falls for the first time during the trend

The official exchange rate of the US dollar on July 30 was 44.87 hryvnias. This is 5 kopecks lower than the figure from the previous trading day, July 29, when the American currency cost 44.92 hryvnias. Although the decline is insignificant, it breaks a series of consecutive increases, which may indicate a temporary stabilization or correction of the exchange rate.

Euro returns to growth

While the dollar showed a decline, the European currency demonstrated the opposite dynamics. After a brief pause in growth, the Euro exchange rate on July 30 was set at 51.08 hryvnias. Compared to Wednesday, July 29, when the rate was 50.06 hryvnias, the Euro increased by 2 kopecks.

Forecast for August: stability without spikes

Experts forecast that in August, the foreign exchange market will move primarily within the framework of July's trends. Serhiy Mametov, Vice President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks and Chairman of the Board of "Globus Bank," stated that under the base scenario, sharp and uncontrolled exchange rate spikes are not expected.

According to the expert's forecast, in the last month of summer, exchange rate indicators will remain within the following limits:

  • US Dollar: 44.50 – 45.50 hryvnias.
  • Euro: 50.50 – 52.50 hryvnias.

The wider corridor for the European currency is related to its dependence on the global ratio of the Euro-Dollar pair, which is expected to be 1.14–1.16.

Factors of stability

The main factors supporting stability in the market remain rhythmic international financial assistance, significant reserves, and active interventions by the National Bank. The volume of interventions in August may amount to about $3.5–4 billion, which should help smooth out possible fluctuations.