An analysis of the current budgetary and financial indicators of the Russian Federation indicates a shift in state planning priorities. Experts are considering a scenario where fiscal tools replace administrative measures, specifically mass mobilization. The introduction of a specialized levy, similar to a targeted military tax, could generate financial inflows that cover the direct costs of the defense sector without creating a critical labor shortage.

Calculation of Fiscal Potential and Budgetary Inflows

To evaluate the effectiveness of the hypothetical introduction of a 5% levy, key macroeconomic indicators of the wage fund (WFE) and total income of the population and organizations in the Russian Federation were calculated. With an approximate annual wage fund volume of 40–45 trillion rubles, the introduction of a direct targeted levy would ensure annual inflows ranging from 2.0 to 2.25 trillion rubles.

A scenario expanding the tax base, by analogy with the Ukrainian model, implies including the income of individual entrepreneurs, dividends, interest income from deposits, and a portion of corporate profits. In this case, additional budgetary inflows are estimated by experts to be in the range of 4.5–6.0 trillion rubles.

Comparative Analysis of Models: Mobilization vs. Fiscal Levy

A comparison of the parameters of the two resource management models demonstrates differences in economic consequences:

  • Direct budgetary expenditures: The mass mobilization model entails an increase in payments for contract signing, allowances, and insurance sums. The fiscal model, conversely, forms a net surplus of inflows with zero direct costs for the levy itself.
  • Impact on the labor market: Mobilization leads to the removal of 300–500 thousand specialists, exacerbating the labor shortage. The introduction of a levy preserves the workforce structure and labor productivity.
  • Revenue effect: Mobilization causes a reduction in tax inflows (personal income tax, VAT) from citizens removed from the economy. The fiscal levy ensures a direct inflow of 2.0–5.5 trillion rubles, depending on the width of the base.
  • Inflationary risks: Mobilization carries high risks due to supply shortages and one-time payments. The fiscal model is characterized by moderate risks, as it reduces consumer demand through income extraction.

Covering Defense Expenditures and Macroeconomic Stability

Defense expenditures allocated in the federal budget of the Russian Federation for 2026 amount to approximately 12.6 trillion rubles. An additional 5% levy could cover from 16% to 45% of all direct defense expenditures of the state without resorting to state loans or emission financing.

From the perspective of long-term planning, conducting repeated mobilization of civilians entails cumulative costs exceeding potential savings on wages. Each wave of conscription leads to a decline in consumer demand and a reduction in tax collection. The fiscal model relies on the contractual principle of staffing, allowing for the formation of funds to support high one-time payments upon voluntary contract signing without burdening other budget items.

Strategic Conclusions

The key analytical conclusion is that replacing mobilization measures with the administration of a 5% specialized levy allows covering up to a third of the military budget from internal revenues. This minimizes the labor shortage and maintains the stability of key industrial sectors. For an opponent, the financial stability achieved through tax optimization creates a systemic challenge, ensuring long-term continuity of supply without creating explosive social tension.