Ukraine's fuel market is undergoing a period of sharp restructuring: following two weeks of panic buying in the wholesale diesel market, tension has begun to ease, but autogas continues to rise steadily in price. According to Serhii Kuyun, director of the A-95 Consulting Group, who commented on current dynamics in a blitz interview with RBC-Ukraine, diesel fuel has likely reached a local peak, while liquefied gas could climb as high as 60 hryvnias per liter. The expert attributes the diverging trajectories of the two main fuel types to different logistical and market factors simultaneously acting on the domestic market.
Diesel: Panic Buying Fades Away
The key development of recent days has been the disappearance of panic demand in the wholesale diesel market. According to Kuyun, this happened after the government made customs clearance of fuel a priority last week. «Today we already felt that the tension of the past two weeks has subsided. Panic demand is gone, and wholesale prices have even decreased,» the expert noted. At the retail level, this means further diesel price hikes at filling stations are unlikely: the market is entering a stabilization phase. At the same time, Kuyun emphasizes that the situation remains tense and requires monitoring global prices, as the global environment is still unsettled.
Autogas: The Path to 60 Hryvnias per Liter
Unlike diesel, the trajectory of autogas remains upward. Kuyun forecasts prices rising to 60 hryvnias per liter and cites three main reasons. The first is a gas shortage in Europe, whence Ukraine procures the bulk of its liquefied fuel. The second is high European gas prices, which are being transmitted to the domestic market. The third is logistical constraints. According to the expert, over the past three to four weeks, autogas has already added 3–4 hryvnias per liter, climbing from around 45 hryvnias to approach 50 hryvnias, while new batches purchased at higher global prices continue to flow into the country and exert pressure on retail costs.
The Danube, Logistics, and Resource Shortages
A separate factor increasing pressure on prices has been the shallowing of the Danube. The river has traditionally served as one of the important fuel supply channels, but its throughput capacity is currently significantly reduced. This has led to a redistribution of supply flows and created additional strain in other logistical directions. Kuyun notes that companies are failing to deliver required fuel volumes, and for nearly three weeks wholesale prices remained higher than retail ones — a direct indicator of a resource shortage in the market. The complication of logistics is linked not only to military factors but also to natural phenomena, making the situation more fragile.
State Mechanisms: What the Market Lacks
Answering a question about a potential spike in diesel prices to 100–150 hryvnias per liter, Kuyun stated outright that he does not believe such a scenario will materialize: «We are already seeing a gradual decrease in fuel consumption worldwide.» Regarding price containment tools, the expert states: Ukraine has no effective mechanisms, and other countries practically lack them as well. Governments resort to subsidies or tax cuts, but according to Kuyun's assessment, this requires colossal budget expenditures and yields only a temporary effect. «In Ukraine, furthermore, there is no way to subsidize prices because there is no spare money in the budget. Therefore, we are essentially transferring prices directly to filling station pumps,» he summarized.
The Hryvnia Exchange Rate and Global Prices: Simple Arithmetic
An equally important factor influencing fuel costs is the exchange rate of the national currency. Kuyun provides a conditional proportion: every one-hryvnia change in the dollar exchange rate adds approximately 80 kopecks to the cost of fuel at the pump. Accordingly, the recent increase in the euro and dollar by more than 30 kopecks will affect the retail price by only 20–25 kopecks — an effect that is noticeable but not critical. The primary driver remains global oil and gas prices, as well as the state of supply chains. As of October 20, the OKKO, WOG, SOCAR, and UPG networks have already raised diesel prices by 1 hryvnia per liter, and autogas has risen by 1.60 hryvnias; gasoline remained unchanged. Thus, the market is entering a phase where diesel stabilizes while gas continues its upward movement — and consumers should factor this gap into their budgets.
