Ukrainian drivers are facing another round of fuel price hikes. Against the backdrop of a sharp surge in prices on world exchanges, there is talk in the country that the cost of a liter of gasoline may soon exceed the symbolic mark of 100 hryvnias. Experts and market representatives are trying to understand whether this is panic or a real forecast.
The Global Market Dictates the Terms
The situation at Ukrainian gas stations depends directly on the conjuncture of the global oil market. Oleg Pendzin, Executive Director of the Economic Discussion Club, confirms the existence of a strong correlation between the price of oil and the cost of fuel for the retail buyer.
The situation has changed radically over the last week and a half: if oil recently cost around $70 per barrel, now the quotes have jumped to almost $97. It was precisely this jump in the raw materials market that became the trigger for several price revisions by gas station operators over the last week. Gasoline, diesel, and autogas continue to become more expensive.
The "100 Hryvnias" Scenario: Myth or Reality?
Earlier, Dmitry Leushkin, co-founder of the Prime group of companies, did not rule out that gasoline could cost more than 100 hryvnias per liter. Serhiy Kuyun, Director of the Consulting Group "A-95", also warned that gas stations have already entered the phase of active price increases. However, Oleg Pendzin is skeptical about such forecasts.
According to him, to cross the 100-hryvnia threshold, world oil must cost around $150 per barrel. The expert recalls that Ukraine has already experienced a period of record-high fuel prices when oil was trading at $110. Given current realities, there is no reason to expect the price to exceed the historical maximum.
The Political Factor and Forecasts
Pendzin links price stability to political events in the USA. In the autumn, midterm elections for the House of Representatives and the Senate will take place in America, which may curb the growth of raw material prices. The expert doubts that oil will significantly exceed the $110 mark in the near future.
At the time of publication, Brent oil futures are trading at around $97 per barrel, and WTI at around $94. If quotes fluctuate in the range of $100–$110, Ukrainian gas stations will offer prices comparable to those observed a few months ago. Significant price increases are possible only in the event of a sharp jump in the cost of raw materials above this threshold.
