Analytic company Omdia has published data showing that global smartphone shipments in the third quarter of 2026 decreased by 20% year-on-year to 254.7 million units. This is the lowest figure for a third quarter since 2013, making the current correction the deepest in over a decade. According to analysts, a key factor has been the steady rise in final product prices, which hit demand particularly hard in emerging markets. Distributors, in turn, are showing increased caution ahead of the holiday season: rising retail prices require distribution channels to use more working capital, forcing them to limit purchases and reduce inventories.
Component Shortages and Product Strategy Restructuring
Major mass-market smartphone manufacturers are increasingly forced to prioritize the most profitable markets and flagship product lines amid chronic shortages of key components. To remain competitive while under pressure on production costs, companies are adjusting RAM and storage configurations, reducing the number of stock-keeping units in their catalogs, and partially absorbing additional expenses. Simultaneously, the lineup of higher-end models is expanding, helping maintain overall business profitability. Emerging markets, which just a few years ago were the main driver of global sales growth, are now experiencing the most pressure: Africa recorded the sharpest drop, down 39% year-on-year. Rising costs have forced manufacturers to shift their focus from aggressive expansion and market share grabbing to margin protection and selective shipments — even when real consumer demand exists.
Regional Picture: Where the Market Dropped Most
In the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China), the Middle East, and Latin America, shipment volumes decreased by more than 20% year-on-year. Depreciation of national currencies, accelerating inflation, and the overall rise in the cost of living led to a noticeable decline in consumer purchasing power. Consumers in these markets are increasingly postponing the purchase of new devices, switching to refurbished smartphones, and in the lowest-income segments, choosing basic feature phones. At the same time, the North American market demonstrated relative resilience due to a high share of premium devices in sales structures, as well as developed carrier financing programs, trade-in systems, and regular hardware upgrade promotions that mitigate the effect of price hikes for end buyers.
How Market Leaders Are Maintaining Positions
Samsung retained its status as the world's largest smartphone supplier, shipping 57.8 million devices in the third quarter — 5% less than a year earlier. The brand's competitiveness was supported by entry-level and mid-range Galaxy A series smartphones, which helped maintain volumes and retain leadership. The launch of the Galaxy Z8 series with a trade-in program further strengthened the company's position in the premium segment. Apple shipped 56.5 million iPhones in the third quarter, remaining virtually flat compared to last year despite the global downturn. Stable demand in China and North America compensated for declining sales in key emerging markets. In September, the company introduced the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and its first foldable model, the iPhone Duo, while the release of the base iPhone 18 was postponed to 2027 — a strategy that extends the life cycle of the iPhone 17 and concentrates demand on new premium devices ahead of the holiday season.
Mid-Range Under the Greatest Pressure
Xiaomi retained third place with 30.7 million shipped devices, down 29% from the same period last year: shipments fell 20% in China and 28% in India. Amid rising component costs, the company adjusted prices, prioritizing margin preservation, which led to a drop in sales in emerging markets. The Redmi A7 Pro and Redmi 17 models stimulated demand, but this was not enough to offset the overall decline. Oppo (including Realme and OnePlus brands) took fourth place with 23.4 million shipped devices — a 39% year-on-year decrease. Vivo came in fifth with 19.3 million devices, losing 33%. Both manufacturers continued to raise prices in key markets in response to rising component costs, further complicating inventory planning in distribution channels.
Outlook: 2026 and 2027
According to Omdia's forecasts, global annual smartphone shipments will decrease by 12% overall in 2026. Further price growth and limited opportunities for discounts will negatively impact demand during the holiday sales period, analysts estimate. In 2027, the global smartphone market will continue to contract, albeit at a slower pace. Thus, the industry is entering a phase of structural restructuring where winners will be those manufacturers capable of maintaining margins through the premium segment and a flexible product strategy, rather than high-volume mass-market shipments.
