Hryvnia strengthens: NBU lowers dollar and euro rates, but analysts warn of a surge in demand due to lifted restrictions

Official exchange rates: dollar and euro weaken

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) set the official exchange rate of the US dollar at 44.71 hryvnias on August 13, 2026. Compared to the previous day, the American currency dropped by 15 kopecks — the previous day's rate was 44.86 UAH. The euro also showed a decline: the regulator set its value at 51.61 UAH, which is 14 kopecks lower than the figure on August 12 (51.75 UAH). Thus, the national currency demonstrated strengthening against major world currencies.

These changes are recorded against the backdrop of general stabilization of the foreign exchange market and the gradual lifting of strict restrictions that were in effect in previous periods. A decrease in the official exchange rate may indicate growing confidence in the hryvnia and improving macroeconomic indicators, however, experts urge not to rush to conclusions, taking into account new regulatory measures.

Expansion of currency limits: what has changed for citizens

From August 11, 2026, the NBU significantly increased the monthly limit for purchasing non-cash foreign currency for individuals — from 50 thousand to 200 thousand hryvnias. Within this amount, Ukrainians can now purchase not only currency but also non-cash precious metals, as well as securities of foreign issuers. In addition, the regulator has expanded limits on cash withdrawals, payments abroad, and certain types of currency transfers.

These changes are aimed at simplifying financial operations for the population and business, as well as stimulating legal channels of currency operations. Previously, citizens were forced to use several bank cards or workarounds to conduct necessary transactions, which created additional difficulties and risks.

Expert opinion: growth in demand as an inevitable consequence

Analyst from the ICU investment group, Mykhailo Demkyv, notes that the new rules simplify transactions with foreign currency, removing unnecessary steps from operations. "To a certain extent, the relaxation of currency restrictions will make it easier to buy currency or make payments abroad," the expert emphasized. However, he warns that this could lead to a temporary surge in demand for foreign currency.

According to Demkyv, the most noticeable effect will be observed in the first weeks or months after August 11. "The very possibility of buying currency will even psychologically push people to do it," the analyst explained. This refers to deferred demand that accumulated during the period of strict restrictions. After part of the population takes advantage of the expanded opportunities, this effect should gradually subside.

Contradictory data

Although the NBU has recorded a decrease in the dollar and euro rates, some sources point to short-term volatility in the interbank market. For example, according to Investing.com, in the first half hour of trading on August 13, the US dollar rate in the domestic market increased by 14.64 kopecks and amounted to 36.2619 rubles (in the context of the Russian market). This may indicate differences between the official NBU rate and real market quotes in the first hours of trading.

It is also worth noting that some media outlets, such as Korrespondent.net and Gazeta.ua, focus on the strengthening of the hryvnia, but do not provide a detailed analysis of the reasons for this strengthening. At the same time, RBK-Ukraine provides a more detailed picture, including expert comments and forecasts for the future.

NBU forecasts and long-term prospects

The National Bank of Ukraine forecasts that by the end of 2026, the volume of the country's foreign exchange reserves will reach almost 70 billion dollars. This indicates that the regulator expects stabilization of demand for foreign currency after the initial surge. "Over time, when this 'hangover' of hryvnia decreases, the volumes of non-cash currency purchases by the population will return to previous levels," believes Mykhailo Demkyv.

Thus, the current strengthening of the hryvnia may be a temporary phenomenon, caused by both macroeconomic factors and the psychological effect of lifting restrictions. Long-term stability of the exchange rate will depend on the NBU's ability to manage demand and maintain confidence in the national currency.