Tehran has made an unprecedented statement capable of overturning the global economy. Iran has officially declared that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed to shipping until Washington changes its policy. Furthermore, Iranian politicians have openly stated their readiness to wait until the end of Donald Trump's presidential term — until January 2029. This decision puts global oil and gas supplies at risk and exacerbates tensions in the Middle East.
Ultimatum via intermediaries: three conditions for opening the strait
According to the latest data obtained from Iranian officials, Tehran has conveyed a specific list of demands to the US through diplomatic intermediaries, the fulfillment of which will be the condition for resuming shipping in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. This is not just about lifting sanctions, but about a fundamental change in the geopolitical situation in the region.
First and foremost, Iran demands a complete cessation of military hostilities in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. Iranian authorities view these conflicts as a direct threat to their national security and consider them a continuation of the aggressive policy of the US and its allies. Without de-escalation in these areas, Tehran has no intention of making concessions.
The second key condition is the complete unfreezing of Iranian assets frozen by Western countries. This demand concerns billions of dollars that Iran considers its legitimate funds. Without the return of these funds and the lifting of financial restrictions, Tehran considers the restoration of normal trade relations impossible.
'Waiting until 2029': Iran sees no point in a deal with Trump
Particular resonance was caused by the statement of an advisor to the speaker of the Iranian parliament that Tehran sees no point in rushing to conclude any deal with the Donald Trump administration. In Iran, it is believed that current US policy does not correspond to the interests of the region, and they propose waiting until the end of Trump's presidential term — January 20, 2029.
This statement can be interpreted as a serious political signal. Iranian authorities, in essence, are indicating that they do not intend to compromise with the current US administration, considering its policy irreconcilable. Waiting until 2029 means that Iran is ready for prolonged confrontation and is prepared to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed for several years.
Such a position by Iran puts the US in a difficult position. On the one hand, Washington is interested in opening the strait to ensure the stability of world markets. On the other hand, fulfilling Iranian conditions could be perceived as a concession, which would be difficult to accept politically.
Economic consequences: oil and global markets
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has catastrophic consequences for the world economy. About 20% of the world's oil consumption passes through this narrow waterway. Any disruption in supplies through the strait is immediately reflected in energy prices.
According to experts, oil prices are already rising against the backdrop of threats to close the strait. If Iran really closes the strait for a long period, this could lead to a global energy crisis, a sharp rise in fuel prices, and inflation worldwide. Countries dependent on Iranian oil, including China, India, and several European countries, will suffer especially.
In addition, the closure of the strait could lead to the redirection of trade flows, which would require significant investment in alternative logistics routes. This would further increase the cost of goods and services in world markets.
Contradictory data
Despite the official statement by Iran, there are contradictions in the assessment of the situation. Some experts believe that Iran will not go for a complete closure of the strait, as this would strike the Iranian economy itself, which depends on oil exports.
On the other hand, other analysts point out that Iran may use the threat of closing the strait as a lever of pressure on the US, without planning a real closure. In this case, the statement about closing the strait until 2029 could be part of a negotiation strategy, rather than a real plan of action.
There are also disagreements regarding how seriously the US perceives the threat from Iran. Some sources indicate that Washington is ready for military action to ensure the opening of the strait, while others believe that the US will prefer a diplomatic solution.
What's next: scenarios for development
The situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains extremely tense. In the coming weeks and months, the key factor will be the US reaction to Iran's ultimatum. If Washington goes on to fulfill Tehran's demands, this could lead to de-escalation of the conflict and the opening of the strait.
However, if the US refuses to fulfill Iran's conditions, this could lead to an escalation of the conflict and the actual closure of the strait. In this case, the world will face a serious economic crisis and possible military action in the region.
In any case, the situation around the Strait of Hormuz will remain one of the main geopolitical challenges of 2026. The actions of Iran and the US will determine not only stability in the Middle East, but also the economic well-being of the entire world.
