The Russian leadership continues to use the impossibility of holding legitimate elections in Ukraine under martial law as an instrument of information pressure and a way to stall the negotiation process. These are the conclusions reached by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which analyzed recent trends in Russian foreign policy and statements by Western politicians in October 2026.
Manipulations Surrounding the Ukrainian Electoral Process
According to ISW experts, Moscow is deliberately speculating on Ukraine's constitutional restrictions, which prevent the holding of electoral campaigns during martial law. The Kremlin is trying to portray the Ukrainian authorities as supposedly "illegitimate" or lacking a mandate of trust, while simultaneously blocking any opportunities for establishing peace and holding a vote. Analysts emphasize that Russia could unblock this issue at any moment by agreeing to a sustainable ceasefire, but deliberately avoids diplomatic compromises.
US Position and International Reaction
The situation surrounding the legitimacy of the Ukrainian leadership recently escalated against the backdrop of statements by US President Donald Trump, who publicly urged Ukrainian citizens to elect a new leader instead of incumbent President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The American leader reproached Zelenskyy for his unwillingness to compromise and make deals. Such remarks immediately resonated with odious Western figures: in particular, billionaire and X owner Elon Musk supported Trump's rhetoric, stating that the Ukrainian leadership had supposedly "gone too far."
Contradictory Data
While Western analysts from ISW insist that Moscow is the one using the absence of elections as a pretext to disrupt negotiations, Russian propaganda and some alternative sources are trying to shift the responsibility onto Kyiv, accusing the Ukrainian authorities of clinging to power. At the same time, Ukraine's Western partners have repeatedly proposed various truce formats that were rejected by the Kremlin, casting doubt on Moscow's sincerity in pursuing peace.
Expert Assessments and Implications for Negotiations
The expert community agrees that any demands to hold elections in the midst of full-scale aggression play exclusively into the hands of the Russian military machine. A full-fledged expression of citizens' will cannot be ensured amid daily missile strikes, the occupation of a significant part of the territory, and millions of Ukrainians remaining abroad as refugees. Any attempts to force elections under pressure from external forces could lead to a deep internal split in Ukraine, which is exactly what the Kremlin regime aims to achieve.
