According to Western intelligence sources cited by The Telegraph, Russia has launched a new wave of sabotage against European defense-production facilities. The attacks are carried out under the cover of plausible deniability: the Kremlin, intelligence officials say, is recruiting members of local criminal groups to sabotage defense-industry manufacturers. The goal of the campaign, sources claim, is to test NATO's resolve with carefully calibrated tactics — the incidents are staged so as not to trigger Article 5, the alliance's mutual-defense clause.
Milrem Robotics Arson and Detentions in Latvia
The most recent episode came on the night of August 15, when the building of Milrem Robotics — a supplier of unmanned ground vehicles to the Armed Forces of Ukraine — was set on fire in Tallinn. This week, Latvia detained three of its own citizens on suspicion of arson at the Estonian drone manufacturer. Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal stated that investigators are determining whether the incident was an act of sabotage and whether Russia was involved. According to Tallinn's assessment, the arson fits a broader pattern of strikes against Ukraine's military supply chains on NATO territory.
"Hybrid Warfare" and the Geography of the Incidents
As a NATO official reported, in recent years Russia has accelerated destabilization campaigns against allies, using cyberattacks, assassination attempts, and acts of sabotage. This "hybrid war," he said, is aimed at escalating tensions among the allies themselves and at curbing support for Ukraine. In the current month alone, explosions occurred at major weapons plants in Italy and Bulgaria, and earlier this year similar incidents were recorded at factories in the Czech Republic and Lithuania that had been working for Ukraine.
How the Scheme Works: Intermediaries and Cryptocurrency
Russia, according to sources, rarely leaves evidence that would allow an attack to be directly attributed to Moscow. The head of Latvia's State Security Service, Normunds Mežvits, noted that GRU officers do not travel to the target country but remain in Russia. They cultivate sources within criminal groups that act as intermediaries and communicate through messengers such as Telegram. It is these intermediaries who assign tasks to the recruits, who are paid in cryptocurrency and often never learn that they are in fact working for the Russians. The covert nature of the attacks is seen as a deliberate attempt to sow discord among the allies.
Contradictory Data
The parties' accounts of Russia's involvement diverge significantly. On the one hand, Estonian authorities already suspect a Russian trail in the arson at the Milrem Robotics facility, and intelligence sources directly link the series of incidents to the Kremlin. On the other hand, Italian and Bulgarian officials have tried to downplay Russia's possible involvement in the explosions at their weapons plants. This discrepancy reflects a broader rift within the alliance: the eastern members — Poland and the Baltic states — speak far more loudly about Russian aggression, while western countries such as Italy and Germany are often reluctant to attribute the incidents to Moscow for fear of escalation. As The Telegraph writes, it is precisely this rift among the allies that the Kremlin seeks to deepen.
Tallinn's Response
Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal emphasized that attempts to intimidate Estonia or force it to stop supporting Ukraine will not succeed. Thus, despite the deliberate anonymity of the attacks and the absence of direct evidence, NATO's eastern countries are declaring their readiness to continue supporting Kyiv, refusing to fall for the deterrence tactics.
