Amid a protracted conflict and the need to maintain a high tempo of strike operations, the Russian military-industrial complex is undergoing a massive restructuring of its production chains. According to a statement by Vadym Skibitsky, Major General and Deputy Head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Moscow has made a strategic decision to reallocate resources. A key factor in the growth of ballistic missile production has been the scaling back of the production of Kh-22 'Kinzhal' hypersonic missiles and Kh-32 guided missiles.
Resource Reallocation and Abandonment of 'Kinzhal'
According to Skibitsky, raw materials and missile fuel previously intended for the creation of 'Kinzhal' missiles are now being redirected to the production of other types of ballistic missiles. GUR experts believe this decision is dictated by the need to optimize costs and increase strike effectiveness. Instead of individual, expensive, and not always accurate hypersonic strikes, Russia is betting on the mass use of ballistic missiles, which, according to Ukrainian intelligence, demonstrate greater reliability in hitting targets.
Accuracy Issues and Kh-32 Modernization
A significant revision of plans has also occurred regarding Kh-32 missiles — a modernized version of the Kh-22 cruise missile. Russia has suspended their serial production and use, returning some units for modification. According to intelligence data, despite attempts to increase guidance accuracy, combat tests of the Kh-32 showed unsatisfactory results. Skibitsky notes that for effective weapons, the allowable deviation from the target should not exceed 5–7 meters, whereas for Russian missiles, this figure reaches 30 meters and more.
Strategy of 'Reliable' Strikes
The logic of resource reallocation is simple: if certain types of missiles reach their targets and cause damage, their production is increased. At the same time, funds and components that previously went to complex and expensive projects are now being used for the mass production of simpler and more accessible systems. This allows Russia to maintain a high tempo of strikes, despite a shortage of some components and sanctions pressure.
Contradictory Data
While Ukrainian intelligence insists that Russia has switched to mass production of ballistic missiles by scaling back other projects, official data from Moscow remains closed. At the same time, Western sources and analysts note that Russia continues to claim the development of hypersonic weapons, including 'Kinzhal'. Differences in assessments may be due to the fact that Moscow does not disclose real production volumes, while Ukrainian intelligence relies on data regarding deliveries and strike results.
