The thirty-two member states of the North Atlantic Alliance have begun discussing new NATO military capability targets, which will form the basis for the most large-scale military planning reform in the last two decades. According to the draft document, alliance countries will no longer be required to simultaneously maintain resources for a major war in Europe and for conducting several smaller crisis management operations. Instead, allies will focus on preparing for one of two scenarios, with deterring and repelling potential Russian aggression becoming the main priority.
From 'Dual Readiness' to a Single Scenario
Previously, NATO's planning system assumed that the alliance should be capable of simultaneously conducting large-scale combat operations in Europe and dispatching reserve contingents to other regions for peacekeeping or crisis operations. The new approach, reported by four alliance diplomats, abolishes this duality. Former NATO Assistant Secretary General for Defense Investment Camille Grand commented on the initiative: 'The proposal reflects a very clear understanding that, regardless of circumstances, a serious contingency in Europe will override any other priority or event for NATO.' Thus, reserve forces that previously could have been sent to Africa, the Middle East, or other regions will now be assigned to the European theater of operations.
'NATO 3.0': Washington Pressure and European Defense
The new concept largely aligns with the demands of the United States, which has insisted in recent years that the alliance focus primarily on defending the European continent. In Washington, this approach is informally referred to as 'NATO 3.0' — the third phase of the alliance's transformation after the post-war creation of the organization and the eastward expansion in the 1990s–2000s. The transition to a single scenario means that the armed forces of member states will be built and equipped for a specific task — repelling a potential Russian offensive — rather than for a universal set of missions.
'Political Guidance' and the 2029 Deadline
Current negotiations concern a document titled 'Political Guidance,' which is part of the alliance's four-year military capability planning cycle. According to the plan, the new cycle should conclude with the approval of updated force and capability requirements for member countries by 2029. Allies are expected to reach a final agreement on the text by February 2027. The outcome of these negotiations will directly determine what weaponry and military equipment the alliance armies will possess and how effective Moscow's deterrence will prove in the medium term.
Budget Constraints and Enhanced Oversight
A high-ranking NATO official acknowledged that the upcoming planning cycle will face significantly more scrutiny than previous ones. 'Governments want to know that their money is being spent wisely,' he stated. Tightening budget constraints on defense needs in a number of European countries could complicate the approval of new targets, as capability requirements imply specific arms purchases, infrastructure modernization, and an increase in personnel strength. For a number of states, this means the need to revise national defense budgets amid general economic pressure.
European Warnings and Regional Context
European officials have repeatedly warned that Moscow could be ready to attack NATO territory as early as 2029 — precisely by the deadline when the alliance is scheduled to complete its new planning cycle. This creates additional pressure on diplomats who must agree on the document in a tight timeframe. Against the backdrop of these talks, it was previously reported that France intends to coordinate rules with Germany regarding potential strikes on Russian territory due to the risk of escalation to the nuclear level. Concurrently, Finland, which joined the alliance in 2023, continues preparations for a potential conflict with Russia, yet faces a number of logistical and infrastructure problems related to adapting its army to NATO standards.
