The National Bank of Ukraine has updated the official exchange rates for the banking day of November 4, setting a new historic maximum for the US dollar. According to the regulator, the American currency is valued at 45.66 hryvnias, which is 13 kopecks higher than the figure of the previous banking day. On Tuesday, November 3, the dollar exchange rate was 45.53 hryvnias. Thus, in a single day, the hryvnia lost value, while the dollar continued its upward trajectory that has been building over recent months.
European currency remains unchanged
Unlike the dollar, the official euro exchange rate for November 4 remained unchanged. The European currency is still valued at 51.05 hryvnias — exactly the same as the day before. Such stagnation of the euro exchange rate against the backdrop of the dollar's growth indicates that the main pressure on the national currency in the current period is concentrated precisely around the American currency, which is traditionally considered a key benchmark for the interbank market and corporate operations.
Factors accelerating devaluation
Financial expert Andriy Shevchyshyn noted in a commentary to RBC-Ukraine that one of the key factors accelerating devaluation processes in the autumn was the situation with international financial assistance. According to him, in October the volume of funds from foreign partners was insignificant, and the prospects for financing the Ukrainian budget for the next year remain uncertain. The expert also pointed to the deterioration of economic sentiments among the population and businesses, as well as the acceleration of inflation, which together amplify negative trends in the economy.
Budget deficit and external financing
In terms of budget constraints, Shevchyshyn emphasized that the Ukrainian budget for the next year, taking into account already confirmed tranches, lacks about 70 billion euros. This gap between confirmed revenues and public finance needs, according to the expert's assessment, increases pressure on the national currency exchange rate and limits the regulator's ability to smooth out fluctuations in the foreign exchange market. It is precisely the combination of inflationary acceleration, weak dynamics of external financing, and pessimistic business expectations that, in the analyst's opinion, shapes the current picture of the hryvnia's weakening.
Context and market expectations
The fixation of a new record dollar exchange rate continues a series of updates to historic maximums recorded by the National Bank over recent months. For market participants, the key issue remains the stability of the exchange rate in the coming weeks: experts are discussing scenarios in which the dollar could either continue to grow or stabilize near current levels depending on the inflow of foreign exchange earnings from exports and the resolution of the issue with external budget financing. Thus, exchange rate dynamics for the coming days will largely depend on macroeconomic factors rather than one-off market fluctuations.
