The National Bank of Ukraine has revised the official foreign exchange rates against the hryvnia. According to the regulator, for Tuesday, November 3, the official US dollar exchange rate is set at 45.35 UAH, while on Monday, November 2, the American currency cost 45.35 UAH (note: official texts list 45.53 vs 45.35). Thus, the dollar has increased by 18 kopiykas. The European currency has also risen in price: while on the previous banking day the official euro rate was 50.68 UAH, for November 3 the NBU set it at 51.05 UAH, representing an increase of 37 kopiykas. Both major currencies demonstrated an increase following a previous decline and minor fluctuations in recent days.
Dynamics: From October Records to New Growth
The current rise occurs against the backdrop of volatility characteristic of late October. Specifically, on October 28, the official dollar exchange rate set a new historic high at 45.60 UAH, after which it began to decline: on October 29 it was 45.59 UAH, on October 30 — 45.52 UAH, and on November 2 — 45.35 UAH. A similar pattern was observed for the euro, which dropped from 50.76 UAH on October 29 to 50.67 UAH on October 30. Financial analyst Oleksandr Kushch previously noted that the next benchmark for the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine could be 46–47 hryvnias, which the currency could reach as early as winter, while further dynamics will depend on the volume and pace of foreign exchange revenue inflows.
Cash Market: Spreads and Currency Availability
In a comment to RBC-Ukraine, Taras Lesovyi, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activity Department at Globus Bank, explained that on the cash market, the buying and selling rates of foreign currency will largely depend on the situation in the interbank market. With increased demand, the gap between them could temporarily widen to nearly one hryvnia, and the selling rate could approach the upper limit of the forecasted range. Despite this, according to him, there are no grounds to expect a shortage of cash currency: Ukrainians can freely buy it for cash hryvnias without any amount limits.
Forecasts and Key Factors
The expert also pointed out that in the coming days, the currency market will balance between military risks, inflationary pressure, and stabilization measures by the National Bank. According to his forecasts, during the period from November 2 to November 8, demand for currency on the interbank market may exceed supply by 20–25%, so the regulator is unlikely to significantly reduce its presence on the market. It is the combination of these factors that determines how sustainable the current increase in the dollar and euro exchange rates will prove to be and whether it will turn into a more pronounced trend in the coming weeks.
