The National Bank of Ukraine has set the official foreign exchange rates for Tuesday, November 10, 2026. Compared to the previous banking day, Monday, November 9, the hryvnia weakened against both major currencies. The official US dollar exchange rate stood at UAH 45.41, which is 9 kopecks higher than the previous figure of UAH 45.32. The euro exchange rate rose by 17 kopecks, from UAH 50.64 to UAH 50.81. Thus, at the beginning of the new work week, the national currency continues to show a moderate weakening against the backdrop of persistent supply and demand imbalances on the interbank market.

What is Driving the Foreign Exchange Market

According to Taras Lesovoy, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Department at Globus Bank, the main factor determining exchange rate dynamics remains the excess of foreign currency demand over supply in the interbank market. He forecasts that this imbalance may reach 20–25%. A significant portion of foreign currency demand is driven by purchases of fuel, energy equipment, and necessary production materials—costs associated with companies' needs, the restoration of damaged capacities, and ensuring the energy resilience of the economy under wartime conditions.

Interventions and the Managed Flexibility Mechanism

To bridge the gap between supply and demand, the banker estimates that the National Bank will continue conducting foreign exchange interventions with an estimated volume of $1–1.5 billion per week. At the same time, the managed exchange rate flexibility mechanism allows the regulator to curb excessive fluctuations and prevent additional market panic. Under these circumstances, the NBU aims to keep the exchange rate close to current levels so that excessive weakening of the hryvnia does not create additional inflationary pressure on the economy.

Wartime Inflation as a Pressure Factor

Attacks on energy, industrial, and logistics infrastructure remain an additional factor of pressure on the economy. They increase business costs and sustain inflation, which Lesovoy characterizes as having a distinct wartime nature. This refers to cost-push inflation: rising production, transportation, and energy supply costs are gradually reflected in the final prices of goods and services. It is this combination of currency imbalance and cost pressure that determines the current exchange rate trajectory and the regulator's policy in the coming weeks.