The National Bank of Ukraine has published the official foreign exchange rates for Wednesday, October 21. According to the regulator's updated data, the U.S. currency has risen in price, while the European currency remained at its previous level. This divergent movement of the two main currencies against the hryvnia has prompted expert analysis: why the dollar and euro can move in opposite directions simultaneously and what this means for the market.
Official Rates for October 21
According to the NBU, the official dollar exchange rate for Wednesday, October 21, is set at 45.07 hryvnias. Compared to Tuesday, October 20, the U.S. currency has increased by 7 kopecks — from UAH 45.00 to UAH 45.07. Meanwhile, the official euro rate has not changed: on October 21, it stands at 50.53 hryvnias, exactly the same as on the previous business day. Thus, over the day, the hryvnia weakened slightly against the dollar and maintained its previous position against the euro.
Why the Dollar and Euro Move in Opposite Directions
As Taras Kozak, founder and president of the UNIVER investment group, explained in a commentary for RBC-Ukraine, the ratio between the dollar and the euro is formed on the global Forex currency market, where trillions of dollars and euros are traded daily. This is precisely why one currency can strengthen while the other simultaneously weakens. If the dollar strengthens significantly against the euro, it may also rise against the hryvnia, whereas the euro, conversely, may fall in price. According to the expert, such a scenario is quite possible and generally corresponds to current dynamics.
The Regulator's Role and External Factors
Kozak noted that the National Bank of Ukraine primarily monitors the dynamics of the dollar against the hryvnia and smooths out fluctuations specifically in this market. At the same time, the regulator does not smooth out changes in the hryvnia-to-euro exchange rate in the same way, which explains the freer movement of the European currency. It is difficult to predict the direction and scale of such changes: the market is influenced by geopolitical events and statements by world leaders that can alter market participants' expectations and cause currency exchange rates to move in various directions.
What This Means for the Market
The outcome of the day shows that the Ukrainian currency market maintains relative stability with moderate daily fluctuations: the dollar added 7 kopecks, and the euro remained unchanged. Experts point out that further dynamics will depend on external signals and the regulator's actions, and the divergent movement of the dollar and euro is a normal phenomenon caused by global Forex dynamics rather than internal imbalances.
