NBU Updates Macro Forecast: GDP to Grow by 1.8%, Inflation to Accelerate to 10% — How to Protect Your Savings

The National Bank of Ukraine has updated its macroeconomic forecast, revising its estimates for GDP growth rates, the inflation trajectory, and the dynamics of household incomes. According to the regulator, after a difficult start to 2026 driven by the destruction of energy infrastructure, rising fuel prices, and delays in the arrival of international financing, the economy began to recover in the second quarter. The NBU attributes this turnaround to repairs of energy-sector facilities, warm weather, the operation of solar power plants, and the inflow of funds from international partners.

Record External Support and GDP Growth Forecast

This year, Ukraine is expected to receive a record volume of external support — $87 billion — to be directed toward social programs, infrastructure reconstruction, and weapons production. Despite ongoing enemy attacks on logistics and production capacity, the NBU forecasts real GDP growth of 1.8% by the end of 2026. In the following years, growth rates may accelerate to around 3%, provided the security situation improves, investments flow in, and migrants return.

Labor Shortage and Pressure on Wages

The regulator notes that the labor shortage caused by the war and migration persists, with the most acute deficits felt in blue-collar occupations. Attracting young people, older workers, and reintegrating veterans into the economy only partially addresses the problem. Competition for skilled workers, according to the NBU, is forcing businesses to raise wages, which has become one of the factors pressuring costs and prices.

Inflation: Acceleration to 10% and Regulator Measures

In July, inflation rose slightly after a brief seasonal slowdown associated with the arrival of the new harvest, and over the past 12 months it stood at 7.7%. The NBU forecasts that inflation will accelerate to 10% by the end of the year and then begin to decline. To keep prices in check, the regulator intends to maintain its presence in the foreign exchange market and keep the policy rate sufficiently high.

How to Protect Savings from Devaluation

The NBU warns that holding large sums in cash or in current accounts is unprofitable because of inflation. As an alternative, the regulator points to income-generating instruments whose expected return exceeds the projected inflation rate — these are precisely the tools that allow savings to be protected from devaluation amid the acceleration of prices in the second half of the year.