The National Bank of Ukraine has published the official foreign exchange rates for Thursday, October 22, 2026. The US dollar corrected slightly downward, while the European currency continued its upward trend. According to the regulator, the official exchange rate for the dollar is set at 45.02 hryvnias, which is 5 kopecks lower than the previous banking day of October 21, when the US currency cost 45.07 hryvnias. Conversely, the official euro exchange rate rose by 3 kopecks to 50.56 hryvnias compared to 50.53 hryvnias the day before. Thus, moderate volatility persists at the interbank level; however, as analysts note, this external stability masks significant pressure on the currency market, which the regulator compensates for with active interventions.
Scale of NBU Interventions Rises by a Third
The relatively calm dynamics of the official exchange rate do not mean that structural pressure on the currency market has eased. According to Taras Lesovyi, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activity Department at Globus Bank, over the past two months, the National Bank has sold an average of about $1.2 billion per week on the currency market. This is approximately 30–35% more than in the first half of 2026, when the average weekly intervention volume was about $900 million. Such an increase in currency sales by the regulator indicates that natural market supply is insufficient to satisfy demand, and without active NBU participation, the hryvnia exchange rate could have shown a more pronounced depreciation.
Imports Exceed Exports by Nearly 2.5 Times
The key reason for the increased burden on the currency market is the substantial gap between importers' foreign currency needs and export earnings. Over January–August 2026, Ukraine imported goods worth nearly $66.3 billion, while exports over the same period exceeded $26.6 billion. The difference between these figures approached $40 billion, with import volumes exceeding exports by nearly 2.5 times. Businesses need foreign currency to purchase fuel, machinery, equipment, raw materials, and components, and it is this structural deficit that creates steady demand for foreign currency that cannot be fully covered by export revenues.
Why the Dollar and Euro Are Moving in Opposite Directions
The divergence in the dynamics of the dollar and the euro is explained by differences in their roles on the Ukrainian currency market. The dollar remains the main settlement currency for a significant portion of import contracts, meaning its exchange rate reacts more strongly to the volume of NBU interventions and the overall balance of supply and demand. The euro, in turn, is showing a smoother upward trend during the current period, which may be related both to the redistribution of currency flows among Ukraine's largest trading partners and to internal factors in the structure of import demand. Experts emphasize that if the regulator's current intervention volume is maintained, exchange rate corridors will likely remain near current levels, but any additional deterioration in the information background or disruptions in energy supply could trigger temporary spikes in demand for cash currency.
Prospects and Risk Factors
In conditions where natural currency supply from exporters does not cover importers' needs, National Bank interventions remain the main tool for maintaining equilibrium on the currency market. The 30–35% increase in weekly currency sales compared to the first half of the year indicates that the regulator has to deploy additional reserves to smooth out volatility. In the coming weeks, the key factors determining the trajectory of the exchange rate will remain the dynamics of export earnings, the volume of import purchases, and the NBU's readiness to continue large-scale interventions. In the absence of sharp external shocks, analysts expect moderate stability to be maintained within current corridors, but the structural trade balance deficit remains a long-term challenge for Ukraine's monetary policy.
