Global energy markets are once again under pressure from geopolitical tensions. A new wave of escalation in the Middle East, triggered by the worsening situation around the Strait of Hormuz and retaliatory US strikes on Iran, has pushed oil prices to multi-month highs. Investors are frantically assessing the risks of supply disruptions for "black gold" through this key global choke point.
Sharp Surge in Quotes
As of July 14, Brent crude futures showed steady growth of 1.5%, reaching $84.54 per barrel. The American benchmark WTI also showed positive dynamics, rising 1.1% to $79.02. For both grades, this marked the highest price level in nearly a month.
The main driver of growth is the fear of supply artery closures. On the night of July 12, Iran announced the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, accusing several vessels of attempting to pass via an unauthorized route. The incident escalated into an armed conflict: Iranian forces attacked a container ship, after which the US launched a series of strikes on Iranian targets.
Analyst Forecasts and New Threats
Energy sector experts are pessimistic. Analysts at Ritterbusch and Associates warn that the conflict between the US and Iran could drag on. A report from the consulting firm notes that renewed attacks are gaining momentum, and additional US bombings following the resumption of the strait blockade are only exacerbating the situation.
Additional tension was added to the market by reports of attacks on two oil tankers owned by the UAE. These incidents confirm traders' worst fears: logistics chains in the Persian Gulf region are under direct threat.
US Position and Economic Risks
Despite Tehran's statements, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) categorically denied the closure of the waterway, stating that the Strait of Hormuz remains open to international shipping.
In response to the crisis, US President Donald Trump raised the issue of financial responsibility. Initially, Washington demanded compensation for ensuring shipping security, and Trump even proposed a fee of 20% for vessel passage. However, after consultations with Middle Eastern leaders, the idea of direct taxation was abandoned. Instead, the US is betting on concluding new trade and investment agreements with Persian Gulf states.
Inflation vs. Demand
Despite the geopolitical frenzy, there are factors capable of curbing further price increases. The main one is the macroeconomic situation. Rising energy costs will inevitably fuel inflation, which may force central banks worldwide to keep interest rates high for longer. This, in turn, could slow economic growth and reduce global demand for oil, creating a balance between supply risks and purchasing power.
