In Ukraine, after the typical autumn seasonal price drop, potato prices have resumed their upward trend. According to the UCAB analytical department, the average retail price of the vegetable in September 2026 was 15.17 hryvnias per kilogram, and by October it had risen to 17.23 UAH/kg. Thus, the price increased by 13.6% in just one month. Compared to last October, potatoes have also become more expensive by about 11%, indicating a steady rather than a one-off price movement.
Seasonal logic: why potatoes get cheaper first
As Maxim Hopka, head of the UCAB analytical department, explained in a commentary to RBC-Ukraine, this dynamic is typical for this time of year. In August and September, significant volumes of potatoes enter the market directly from the fields at the peak of mass harvesting. Overproduction during these months objectively puts pressure on prices and causes them to drop. This is why consumers usually experience the most affordable potato window in the second half of the year.
Transition to storage and supply contraction
However, as active harvesting concludes, market dynamics change. Part of the crop is put into long-term storage, and the volume of potatoes available for immediate sale decreases. This creates prerequisites for further price growth: supply on store shelves becomes less redundant, and the "here and now" supply contracts. The transition from the active harvest dumping phase to the storage phase is a key factor that triggers upward price dynamics starting in October.
Forecast until the end of 2026
According to Maxim Hopka's forecast, potatoes will gradually become more expensive until the end of 2026. At the same time, sharp price spikes are not expected unless there are significant crop losses during storage — the condition of storage reserves will be the main risk factor for consumers. Under the baseline scenario, the average retail price of potatoes by the end of the year could be around 19–23 hryvnias per kilogram.
Discrepancies in autumn dynamics data
It is worth noting that the picture of autumn dynamics looks uneven across various reviews. While UCAB data shows average retail prices growing in October, a number of market reviews record weekly decreases in potato prices at the retail level in mid-October. Such discrepancies are largely explained by differences in methodologies: the national average retail price and point market ranges for a specific week reflect different slices. In any case, all sources confirm that in the autumn season of 2026, potato prices in Ukraine fluctuated actively, and the baseline guide for consumers for the coming months remains a gradual increase within the projected range.
