A new reality is taking shape in the space above Europe. The Russian company "Bureau 1440" is continuing to deploy its low-orbit satellite network "Rassvet," which is positioned as a direct alternative to the American Starlink project. According to the latest data obtained through the analysis of orbital trajectories, the satellites are already capable of creating conditions for communication over the territory of Ukraine.
Expert Analysis: From 20 Minutes to an Hour
Ukrainian satellite communications specialist Vladimir Stepanets conducted a detailed analysis of the movement of the "Rassvet" spacecraft. His calculations show significant dynamics in the development of the project. If previously, with only three experimental satellites, the time of theoretical communication availability over Ukraine was estimated at 15–20 minutes, the situation has now changed.
According to new estimates, the satellites form relatively stable coverage over the territory of Ukraine at least twice a day. Each such period can last more than an hour. Due to the fact that the spacecraft move in chains, some areas may fall within their visibility zone approximately every 90 minutes.
Important Clarification: Orbit Does Not Equal Internet
Despite the impressive figures, it is important to understand the difference between the physical passage of a satellite and the actual operation of the service. The passage of a spacecraft over a region does not automatically mean the availability of working internet. At this stage, we are talking exclusively about theoretical coverage and expert calculations based on flight trajectories.
Representatives of "Bureau 1440" confirmed that the second group of satellites was launched into orbit on July 19 and established contact with the control center. However, the spacecraft are in the stage of preparation for service provision and will move to the calculated orbit only after all necessary checks are completed.
Development Plan and Forecast for 2027
The "Rassvet" project is in the stage of active deployment. The first 16 serial spacecraft were launched into orbit on March 23, 2026 (although one of them failed to gain altitude and returned to the atmosphere). The second group was launched on July 19; the company did not disclose the exact number of spacecraft in it.
The official plan of "Bureau 1440" provides for the commercial launch of the network in 2027. To ensure 24/7 global communication, it is planned to launch more than 250 satellites into orbit. Vladimir Stepanets forecasts that, maintaining the current launch pace, Russia will be able to form continuous coverage over Ukraine by mid-2027.
Strategic Significance and Comparison with Starlink
The experience of using Starlink during the Russo-Ukrainian conflict showed the critical importance of low-orbit networks for managing drones and communicating with frontline units. If "Rassvet" is fully deployed, it could give Russia the ability to connect military and civilian objects in remote areas.
However, it is premature to compare the current state of "Rassvet" with Starlink. The SpaceX system has thousands of active satellites and powerful infrastructure, while the Russian project is just beginning its journey. For the full military use of "Rassvet," not only satellites will be required, but also special protected terminals, as well as developed ground control infrastructure.
