The situation on the eastern front remains tense and unpredictable. Although the Russian army currently lacks the forces and resources for a rapid operational breakthrough of the entire Ukrainian defensive line in the Donetsk region, experts warn of the risk of losing another major city. The focus is on Konstantynivka, which, according to military analysts, could be captured by the enemy in the coming months.
Threat to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk
Contacts of RBC-Ukraine in military and political circles outline an unfavorable scenario: by the end of winter, Russian troops could approach Sloviansk and Kramatorsk closely. However, experts emphasize that for Russia to achieve this goal, it is not enough to simply slowly shift the front line.
To advance on these key nodes, the enemy will have to sequentially overcome prepared defensive lines, expand the flanks, and constantly pull logistics while remaining under fire from Ukrainian drones. This makes the task extremely difficult and resource-intensive.
Kremlin Goals and Timelines
Currently, Vladimir Putin is demanding that the command bring troops to the administrative borders of the Donetsk region by the end of 2026. Nevertheless, analysts consider such a scenario unlikely. Moreover, even achieving this goal by 2027 remains questionable.
The key factor that will determine further developments will be the Russian leader's decision on conducting a new mobilization and its scale.
Scenario in the North: Buffer Zone
In addition to actions in the southeast, sources lean towards the fact that Russia may conduct an operation with limited forces in the north, attempting to break through the border in the Chernihiv or even Kyiv region. The Bryansk region is considered as a springboard for such an offensive, while Belarus' participation is not yet a mandatory condition.
Even in the event of a successful offensive in the north, a deep breakthrough to Kyiv is unlikely. Most likely, the Kremlin will attempt to create a so-called "buffer zone" along the border. However, experts believe that this is merely a tool of a broader scheme — to stretch the Ukrainian defense and force Kyiv to transfer forces from those areas where Russia is trying to achieve the main result, that is, in the Donetsk region.
