According to Rosstat's preliminary estimate cited by Interfax, Russia's gross domestic product grew by 1% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026. This marks a slowdown compared to the second quarter, when growth stood at 1.3%. However, the actual figure turned out higher than expected: the Ministry of Economic Development had estimated third-quarter growth at 0.6%, while analysts surveyed by the agency expected 0.7%. Thus, the economy demonstrated a more robust result than both the government agency and the market had factored in, albeit against the backdrop of a general trend toward declining growth rates.
Nine-month results: from a negative start to weak growth
The year's dynamics have been uneven. In the first quarter of 2026, GDP, conversely, contracted by 0.2% year-on-year. Taking into account the subsequent growth in the second and third quarters, the Russian economy may have grown by 0.7–0.8% in January–September, Interfax calculated. At the time of publication, Rosstat had not yet released an official estimate for the nine months, whereas the Ministry of Economic Development had previously estimated growth for this period at 0.6%. The discrepancy between the agency's calculation and the official estimate is small, but it highlights that the final figure for the three quarters remains near the lower bound of moderate growth.
What supported growth: betting on domestic demand
The Ministry of Economic Development attributed the third-quarter GDP growth primarily to domestic demand. Over the year, public catering turnover increased by 5.2% and retail trade by 4.2%, pointing to sustained consumption as the main economic driver. At the same time, several sectors showed negative dynamics: agricultural production contracted by 3.9%, and mineral extraction by 2.7%. Such sector-specific divergence is typical for an economy where growth is driven by individual segments rather than a broad-based recovery across all areas.
2026 outlook: upward revision
Following the data publication, the Ministry of Economic Development indicated that full-year 2026 GDP growth might exceed its official forecast of 0.6%. Notably, back in October, the ministry had raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.6% from 0.4% in its May version. The Central Bank governor previously stated she expects growth within 1%, attributing economic support to the manufacturing sector—including defense enterprises—as well as rising incomes and consumption among Russians. According to her, the Central Bank's 2026 forecast range is between 0.0% and 1.0%, and the actual data fits within this bracket.
Expert assessments: stagnating dynamics and stagflation risks
Despite surpassing forecasts, experts interviewed by Vedomosti characterize the state of the Russian economy as a phase of pronounced slowdown bordering on stagnation. One expert noted that no sustained, broad-based recovery is observed, and the economy is moving in a stagnation dynamic—very weak growth accompanied by divergent sectoral movements. Another expert described the situation as an inertial scenario where front-loaded demand in certain segments creates supply shortages and maintains high inflation. According to him, this configuration carries stagflation risks—a combination of weak growth with persistently high price levels.
