Ukrainian and Polish experts are sounding the alarm: Moscow is preparing a large-scale information-psychological operation aimed at artificially igniting a conflict between Ukraine and NATO countries. At the heart of the Kremlin's scenario is the use of drones disguised as Ukrainian ones to attack the territory of Kyiv's allies.
This was warned by Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) of Ukraine. According to him, Russia plans to undermine the trust of Western partners in Kyiv by staging aggression using Ukrainian weapons.
Provocation Scenario: The Baltics and Poland in the Crosshairs
According to intelligence data, the Baltic states and Poland are being considered as targets for provocations. Kovalenko claims that the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) of the Russian Federation is responsible for organizing such operations. If necessary, employees of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) may be involved in implementing the plan.
The logic of the provocation is simple and cynical: Russian saboteurs use drones that are visually and technically indistinguishable from Ukrainian ones to strike targets in NATO countries. Afterward, Moscow may demand concessions from Western partners or use the incident as a pretext for escalation, accusing Kyiv of violating the alliance's borders.
Warsaw's Position: "We Expect an Attack"
Similar warnings are coming from Poland. Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski was among the first to speak about the Kremlin's plans for disinformation. According to him, Warsaw is already actively preparing for a scenario where Ukrainian drones become a tool of Russian aggression.
Sikorski links these threats to recent statements by Vladimir Putin. The Russian President previously stated that if a NATO member country attacks the territory of Russia or its allies, Moscow will respond adequately. The Polish diplomat believes that this threat became the trigger for preparing a provocation: Russia could attack alliance members with a drone disguised as Ukrainian and then use this as a formal pretext for retaliatory actions.
Context of Escalation
Against the backdrop of these statements, tension in the region continues to rise. Recently, a Russian reconnaissance aircraft was intercepted on approach to Poland, which served as another signal of Moscow's intentions. Experts note that the Kremlin is trying to sow discord between Kyiv and Warsaw using any available tools, from cyberattacks to sabotage.
Currently, the key task for Kyiv and its partners is not only the physical protection of borders but also proving that Ukraine is not a tool for provocations against NATO. Any attempt by Moscow to confuse the situation using a "false flag" will be met with tough counterintelligence and diplomatic pressure.
