The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its report for October 29 assessed Russia's current strategy: the intensification of daytime long-range attacks on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure is aimed at making the daily life of the population unbearable, damaging the economy, and ultimately forcing Kyiv to capitulate ahead of the 2026–2027 winter. Simultaneously, according to analysts, Moscow is trying to split European states and exclude them from the peace process.
Daytime strikes as a tool of pressure
ISW analysts point out that the October 29 strikes are part of systematic Russian efforts to launch daytime attacks aimed at causing significant civilian casualties and economic damage. According to their assessment, throughout 2026 Russian forces have increased the lethality of the strike campaign by exploiting gaps in Ukraine's air defense system and utilizing new technological solutions, including Banderol loitering munitions and jet-powered drones. The Kremlin, the institute assesses, likely expects that such long-range strikes will distract from Ukraine's recent battlefield successes and impose additional expenses on the population ahead of the heating season.
Victims of the October 29 attacks
According to ISW, daytime attacks across Ukraine on October 29 killed at least 19 people and injured at least 82. Specifically, a Russian jet drone hit a commuter train at a railway station in Dnipro, killing at least 14 people and injuring 14 others. A Banderol-type loitering munition strike on a residential area in Chernihiv killed two children and injured at least 31 people, while a drone strike on an apartment building in Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast, took the lives of three people and injured 32 residents, including six children. On the same day, civilian facilities were reported hit in Dnipro, Chernihiv, Kremenchuk, and Zaporizhzhia.
Oleshky: Shifting responsibility
ISW notes that on October 29, Vladimir Putin attempted to shift responsibility for the humanitarian situation in temporarily occupied Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, onto Ukraine, accusing it of mining access routes. At the same time, Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets and Russian Ombudsman Yana Lantratova confirmed that a ceasefire regime had been observed in Oleshky for 54 hours starting from the morning of October 27. The Institute emphasizes that full responsibility for the humanitarian crisis lies with the Russian occupation administration, which, according to its data, has ceased the delivery of food and medicine since May 2026, rejected Ukrainian local truce initiatives three times, and continued to deliberately undermine the humanitarian status of the city in September 2026.
Diplomatic pressure on Europe
Commenting on the diplomatic track, ISW experts point out that the Kremlin is using Vladimir Putin's phone call with Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre on October 27 to deepen divisions within Europe and weaken its negotiating positions. Statements by Russian Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov, Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, and Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova on October 28–29 regarding an exclusively trilateral format for negotiations between Ukraine, Russia, and the US indicate Moscow's desire to sideline European leaders from the peace process until Russia's December 2021 ultimatums regarding the reduction of NATO's presence to its 1997 borders are met.
Negotiation format and the Abu Dhabi meeting
The Kremlin, according to ISW, is shaping information conditions to extort unilateral concessions from Ukraine before substantive negotiations begin. Specifically, Yuri Ushakov announced a trilateral meeting between the delegations of the US, Ukraine, and Russia in Abu Dhabi after November 4, making the exact date dependent on the frontline situation and Ukraine's Armed Forces refraining from long-range strikes on Russian territory during Russian holiday celebrations—despite Moscow's systematic refusals of a mutual moratorium on long-range attacks. Thus, the institute concludes, Russia aims to frame Kyiv as an obstacle to a peaceful settlement if the Ukrainian side rejects the previously put forward unilateral terms.
