The economic situation in Russia is undergoing significant changes. According to the latest data, the country's federal budget expenditures and deficit may exceed the figures laid down in the current budget by more than one trillion rubles. The scale of the revision is forcing experts and observers to look for the reasons behind such adjustments.

Reasons for the Deficit Increase

Official government representatives on the Russian budget portal have not yet provided detailed explanations as to why such a significant revision of figures was required. However, journalists and economists tend to believe that the main driver of expenditure growth is the increase in costs for the war against Ukraine.

History shows that such adjustments are not uncommon. Last year, the Russian budget deficit exceeded the initial forecast by almost five times, reaching 5.7 trillion rubles, which amounted to 2.6% of GDP. This is the highest figure since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

New Forecasts and Figures

According to updated forecasts, in 2026, Russia's federal expenditures will amount to 45.11 trillion rubles instead of the previously planned 44.07 trillion rubles. The difference may seem insignificant on a trillion-scale, but it indicates a systemic shift in priorities.

According to the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, in the first six months of 2026, the budget deficit has already reached 5.73 trillion rubles, or 2.5% of GDP. This is 1.7 times higher than in the same period last year.

Ministry of Finance Position and Deferred Goals

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov admitted that the budget deficit would be somewhat higher than the official forecast. At the same time, he continues to assert that this will not require a significant increase in government borrowing.

Furthermore, the Russian Ministry of Finance expects the budget deficit to remain higher than planned for at least another two years. Against this backdrop, the Russian authorities have postponed the achievement of the initial zero budget deficit, originally planned for 2029.

International Context

Internal economic problems in Russia are developing against the backdrop of tightening external pressure. Previously, RBC-Ukraine reported that Zelenskyy explained the mechanism of US "hellish sanctions" against the Russian Federation. New details of Lindsey Graham's bill against Russia have also become known. Moreover, Trump himself recently assessed the likelihood of adopting "hellish sanctions" against the aggressor country.