Russian coal exporters are rapidly losing ground in key foreign markets in 2026. Shipments to China are declining despite attempts to retain buyers through price discounts, while competitors from Asia and other regions are actively increasing their exports.
Reasons for the Decline in Shipments to China
According to the January-August 2026 results, Russian coal supplies to China decreased by 10.8% year-on-year to 53.15 million tons. As a result, Russia lost its standing among the largest suppliers to the Chinese market. The main drivers of this drop include expensive logistics, import duties of 3–6%, and almost exhausted potential for further price cuts.
Competitors' Successes and Logistical Deadends
Against the backdrop of falling Russian supplies, coal imports from Mongolia over the same period grew by 48.9% (to 78.39 million tons), and Indonesia supplied 121 million tons to China. Mongolia's main advantage is its shared land border, whereas Russian coal from Kuzbass must travel through the overloaded Eastern Polygon. Additional pressure comes from continuous increases in domestic railway tariffs within the Russian Federation.
Problems in Other Directions and the Price Deadend
The crisis has also affected other export routes: over seven months, Russian coking coal supplies to Turkey dropped by 30%, and in July shipments stopped entirely due to complex navigation conditions in the Black Sea. Russian coal producers are squeezed between falling margins, the impossibility of lowering prices below profitability, and rising domestic costs.
