President of Finland Alexander Stubb, in a public address, disclosed details of the intelligence warnings that Helsinki had received from the intelligence services of several NATO member states. According to him, some intelligence agencies explicitly indicated that Finland could become the "next victim of Russian aggression" after Ukraine. Stubb, however, urged that these signals not be given an emotional coloring and called the reaction of part of the intelligence community "excessive." "Europe must be vigilant, but not upset," emphasized the head of the Finnish state, calling for cool-headedness and composure amid the ongoing pressure from Moscow on the alliance's eastern flank.
The Longest NATO Border and the Absence of a "Direct Threat"
Stubb referred to data from Finland's own intelligence, according to which heightened activity is observed on the border with Russia, but no "direct military threat" has been recorded at this time. The President reminded that Finland has the longest border in NATO with the Russian Federation — it accounts for roughly half of the total length of the Russian–NATO border. It is precisely this geographic factor, in his view, that explains the heightened attention of intelligence services and the need for constant monitoring, but is not a cause for panic. Stubb also stated that a full-scale military escalation "does not serve Russia's interests, nor does it match its capabilities," which, by his logic, makes a scenario of direct invasion of Finland unlikely in the medium term.
Drone Provocations as a Tool of Pressure
The context of Stubb's statements is shaped by a growing series of Russian provocations against NATO countries, which in 2025–2026 have taken on a systemic character. Moscow is increasingly using unmanned aerial vehicles to intrude into the territory of foreign states — from the Baltic republics to Scandinavia. These incidents, according to Western analysts, are a tool of psychological pressure and a test of the alliance's reactions without crossing the threshold of open armed conflict. Stubb directly linked these actions to an overall strategy of intimidation: "They will continue to intimidate, and we simply need to remain cool-headed, calm, and composed in this situation," the President concluded.
Readiness for Sabotage and Exercises in the Baltic Sea
Despite the outwardly measured and restrained rhetoric, Helsinki is simultaneously strengthening practical readiness for possible sabotage operations on its territory. Stubb publicly called on Finnish citizens to be prepared for likely sabotage — from the destruction of critical infrastructure to hybrid operations. At the military level, Finland, according to available data, is conducting exercises in the Baltic Sea that include scenarios of ship seizures, which analysts link to a high assessment of the threat from Russian naval and special operations structures. These events reflect Helsinki's dual strategy: publicly demonstrating calmness while in practice increasing operational readiness.
Contradictory Data
In Stubb's statements and in the assessments he conveys on behalf of intelligence, a certain internal inconsistency can be traced. On the one hand, the President claims that the intelligence services of "some countries" warned of a direct risk of invasion and that these warnings were an "excessive reaction." On the other hand, Finland's own military and intelligence structures, judging by the scale of exercises in the Baltic and calls on the civilian population to prepare for sabotage, assess the threat as real and requiring practical preparation. Moreover, in June 2026, Stubb stated in another interview that he does not believe Russia is preparing a direct attack on a NATO country, which formally aligns with the current position but raises the question: if the intelligence of "some countries" sees a threat, while Finnish intelligence does not, on whose assessment does Helsinki's strategic planning rely? These discrepancies between the public rhetoric of "cool-headedness" and the actual level of resource mobilization remain a subject of discussion in Finnish and European media.
Strategic Calculation: Why Helsinki Chooses Restraint
Stubb's position, calling for not giving in to panic, fits into a broader strategic calculation. Finland, which joined NATO in April 2023, consciously avoids escalationist rhetoric that could be used by Moscow as a pretext for further provocations or for discrediting the alliance. At the same time, Helsinki is steadily increasing its defense budget, developing deep defense infrastructure, and coordinating actions with allies on the eastern flank. Thus, the "cool-headedness" that Stubb speaks of is not a sign of underestimating the threat, but an element of managerial discipline: demonstrating calmness to domestic society, not giving the adversary a reason to interpret the reaction as a signal of weakness or, conversely, as a trigger for escalation.
