Finnish President Alexander Stubb, in an interview with the German publication Bild, stated that Ukraine is the best security guarantee Europe has in its confrontation with Russia. According to the Finnish leader, supporting Kyiv is not only a matter of solidarity but also a direct investment in the security of Scandinavia and Germany. “We must understand, you in Germany and we in Finland, that Ukraine is the best security guarantee we have against Russia. If Ukraine loses, we lose too,” Stubb summarized, emphasizing the interdependence of Kyiv’s fate and that of NATO countries.
“Ukraine Will Win This War”
In the same interview, Stubb stated that, in his assessment, Ukraine is today in a more favorable position than at any point in the history of the current conflict. The Finnish leader pointed to Kyiv’s advantage in the military, political, and financial dimensions. “Ukraine has the advantage, and it will win this war... If you live, if you remain independent, if you remain a sovereign state — then that is a victory,” he emphasized, effectively redefining the criterion of victory as the preservation of Ukraine’s statehood and sovereignty.
Support for Kyiv as an Investment in Own Security
Stubb consistently linked Ukraine’s further fate to the security of European capitals. His position boils down to the idea that military, political, and financial assistance to Kyiv pays off by reducing long-term risks for Europe. This approach, in essence, shifts the question of aid to Ukraine from the realm of humanitarian assistance to that of national security and strategic planning, which is characteristic of the rhetoric of countries directly bordering the conflict zone.
Risk Assessment: NATO, Nuclear Weapons, and China’s Role
In response to questions about possible escalations, the President of Finland stated that he does not believe Russia intends to attack NATO at any point, citing the intelligence he has and deterrent factors. Moreover, Stubb expressed the conviction that Russia will not use nuclear weapons, and on this issue, he said, “China reassured him.” This statement was one of the most unexpected in the interview, as it implies the existence of an informal communication channel between the Finnish leadership and Beijing on matters of strategic stability.
Call to Resume Dialogue with Russia
In addition to his statements on supporting Ukraine, Stubb spoke in favor of resuming dialogue between Europe and Russia. In his view, the current “silence” can breed illusions in Moscow about new threats that do not exist in reality. Thus, the Finnish leader proposes combining a firm line of support for Ukraine with elements of diplomatic deterrence through communication, so as to prevent misassessments on the part of Moscow.
Contradictory Data
Stubb’s statements reveal an internal tension between two lines. On the one hand, he claims that Ukraine “will win this war” and is in its best position of the entire war, effectively forecasting the continuation and conclusion of the conflict in Kyiv’s favor. On the other hand, he calls for resuming dialogue with Russia, which logically fits more into a scenario of negotiations and settlement than into a scenario of unilateral military victory. In addition, the claim that the question of Russia renouncing nuclear weapons was “reassured by China” is not confirmed by any other party and is not supported by public documents; it is a singular statement by the Finnish president that requires additional verification. Finally, the thesis that Russia “will not want to attack NATO” is based on intelligence whose details are not disclosed, making the assessment unverifiable for an outside observer.
