In August 2026, the global stock market is showing record highs, yet behind the facade of prosperity lies an alarming reality. Tech giants like Alphabet and Amazon are becoming increasingly reliant on speculative profits derived from holding shares in other companies. While investors celebrate the surge in market capitalization, experts note that a significant portion of these corporations' quarterly earnings is generated not by selling goods or services, but solely through the revaluation of their investment portfolios.
A Vicious Cycle: The Economy of Mutual Financing
The situation in the AI market has evolved into a complex system of interdependence where dominant players finance one another. Tech giants, chip manufacturers, and AI labs are not just investing capital but also lending to each other. These funds often circulate in a closed loop: money raised from investors returns to them in the form of payments for cloud services and equipment purchases. Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, describes these schemes as a "creative way to unlock capital" necessary to accelerate innovation. However, this model creates a fragile ecosystem where the success of one company directly dictates the financial health of another.
Alphabet and Amazon: Paper Profits
Financial reports for the second quarter of 2026 reveal an unprecedented role for the investment component. More than 70% of Alphabet's net profit comes from investments in other companies. The key driver here was SpaceX's IPO in June—the largest in history. Alphabet's stake in Elon Musk's company is valued at $94.1 billion, generating nearly $80 billion in pre-tax profit for the corporation. The situation is similar for Amazon: about 65% of their profit is formed by investment income, primarily from shares in the AI lab Anthropic, which is also preparing for a public offering. It is important to note that if these companies do not sell their stakes, all this profit exists only in accounting reports as unrealized income.
The 'Magnificent Seven' and the Risk of Systemic Collapse
The figures for the 'Magnificent Seven' (Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Tesla, Nvidia) for the quarter from April to June totaled $315.6 billion. Of this amount, $134.6 billion, or 42%, was investment profit. For comparison, a year earlier, this figure was only 5%. Without speculative profits, the growth in quarterly earnings would have been impossible. Nvidia, which holds stakes in OpenAI and Anthropic and also invests in CoreWeave and Applied Digital, reported $13 billion in investment income. Such concentration of risk means that any fluctuations in the valuation of private AI companies could instantly crash the giants' reports, creating a threat of systemic crisis for the entire economy.
Contradictory Data
There is a significant gap between the optimistic statements of company management and the actual situation on the exchange. On one hand, CEOs like Sam Altman argue that such schemes are necessary to finance innovation and accelerate technological progress. On the other hand, market dynamics are already showing volatility. SpaceX shares, which soared immediately after the June 12 IPO, were trading 17% below Alphabet's June 30 report levels by August 2026. This discrepancy casts doubt on the sustainability of current balances and suggests that reported profits may be overvalued. If investors begin to doubt the prospects of the AI sector en masse, it threatens massive consequences for all market participants.
