Threat to Metalglobe Export: Greater Odesa Port Blockade Costs Ukraine Up to $200M Monthly

The restoration of full-fledged operations at Greater Odesa ports is a critical condition for the survival of Ukraine's mining and metals sector. According to analytical data from the GMK Center published in October 2026, the blockade of Black Sea routes causes colossal damage to the industry, estimated at $150-200 million monthly, while alternative overland routes are physically unable to compensate for these losses.

Scale of Losses and Dependence on the Maritime Corridor

In the first half of 2026, about 50% of Ukrainian steel exports, 95% of pig iron, and 50% of iron ore passed through Black Sea ports. The throughput capacity of Greater Odesa ports is about 6 million tons per month, whereas even maximally loaded Danube ports can process only 2.5-3 million tons. Due to the closure of the maritime corridor, domestic iron ore production could decrease by 35% compared to the first half of the current year, and enterprises such as Ferrexpo and Ingulets GOK have already been forced to suspend operations.

Limitations of Alternative Logistics

Railway transport is also incapable of fully replacing maritime shipping due to infrastructural constraints and high tariffs. Actual freight volumes through western border crossings remain at 2-2.6 million tons per month. At the same time, additional logistical expenses for overland delivery can reach $30 to 60 per ton. For iron ore, which has a relatively low market value, such excessive costs make transportation economically unfeasible and unprofitable.

Required Measures and International Participation

To rectify the critical situation, industry analysts propose creating a special insurance fund for metallurgical and ore cargo, as current high insurance rates make the transportation of low-margin products unprofitable. Ensuring the security of navigation requires coordinated actions between the state, domestic business, and international partners. The stable functioning of the maritime corridor is viewed by experts not only as the basis for the survival of domestic metallurgy but also as a key element of global resource security.

Economic Significance and Prospects

The critical condition of the mining and metals complex caused by enemy strikes on key enterprises, railway infrastructure, and ports threatens large-scale negative consequences for the country's entire financial system. The full resumption of exports through Greater Odesa ports is directly linked to job retention, stable tax revenues, and the inflow of necessary foreign exchange earnings. Without an effective solution to the maritime blockade, the Ukrainian economy will continue to suffer multimillion-dollar monthly losses, increasing pressure on the national currency.