The administration of US President Donald Trump is considering a scenario of direct military intervention in Mali. Washington's focus has shifted to the Jamaʼat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) group, linked to the international terrorist network 'Al-Qaeda'. If a decision is made, Mali will become the eighth country against which the White House chief has ordered strikes since the beginning of his second term.
Escalation of Violence and Security Threats
The reasons for the escalation of rhetoric and preparation for military action are obvious. JNIM has become one of the most powerful and well-armed terrorist groups not only in the region but globally. Fighters entrenched in Mali are increasingly expanding their operational zone, attacking coastal states in West Africa.
Last year, terrorists organized a large-scale fuel blockade that effectively paralyzed a significant part of the country. In the spring of this year, the situation escalated to the limit: coordinated nationwide attacks were carried out. Fighters took to the streets of the capital Bamako, captured a strategically important city in the north, and staged a suicide bombing that resulted in the death of Mali's Minister of Defense.
Disagreements Within the US Administration
Despite the threat, there is no unity among senior US officials regarding the expediency of using force. An active proponent of a military strike is Sebastian Gorka, Senior Director for Counterterrorism on the National Security Council. However, the administration spokesperson has not yet revealed whether Trump plans to launch strikes, limiting himself to calling on the governments of North and West Africa to "buy American equipment and services" to fight terrorists.
The official US representative also called on regional partners and NATO allies to support the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in the fight against JNIM and ISIS. This alliance includes Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger — countries where military regimes have overthrown democratic governments in recent years, severed ties with the West, and turned to Russia for help.
Risks of Confrontation with Russian Forces
Direct US military involvement in Mali carries serious geopolitical risks. The Malian government hired Russian mercenaries to combat violence — first from the "Wagner" group, and now from "Africa Corps," which is already linked to the Russian Ministry of Defense. According to human rights defenders, Russian mercenaries are accused of a number of atrocities.
A US administration official blames instability not on the governments themselves, but on their Russian partners, stating that Moscow has "proven its inefficiency" as a security partner. Nevertheless, any military action against JNIM could lead to a direct confrontation with Russian forces in the region. This would require the creation of deconfliction mechanisms between Washington and Moscow, similar to those existing in Syria.
Context of Russian Presence in Africa
The presence of Russian mercenaries in Mali is not accidental. Russia has created an extensive recruitment network in Africa for the war against Ukraine, attracting citizens of nearly 40 African countries under the guise of employment. Furthermore, Russia actively uses African states to bypass international sanctions, recruit new fighters, and gain access to natural resources.
This is not the first attack on Russians in Mali. In July of this year, a column with more than 200 Russian mercenaries and local soldiers was attacked in the north of the country — the FLA group claimed responsibility for the attack.
List of Targets and Scale of Operations
In the event the plan is implemented, Mali will join the list of countries where Trump has already ordered strikes: Yemen, Somalia, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, and Venezuela. It should be noted that the administration is also conducting a contradictory military campaign against suspected drug traffickers in the Caribbean and the eastern Pacific.
Last year, the US attempted to resume relations with Mali by expanding intelligence sharing with the country's government. This data was used to support strikes by the Malian army. However, according to experts, this cooperation remains significantly smaller in scale than the US partnership with Nigeria, which included airstrikes and a ground mission that eliminated one of the top ISIS leaders in Africa.
