The diesel agreement concluded in early October between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin is facing the threat of collapse. According to the Financial Times, two of three oil tankers carrying Russian fuel bound for the United States have changed course and no longer list the US Atlantic coast as their destination. This calls into question the practical implementation of the deal, which, according to media reports, has effectively failed to lower diesel prices in the American market segment since its signing.
What is Happening with the Tankers
The Russian tanker 'Talisman' and the vessel 'Leruo', owned by a Hong Kong company and sailing under the Sierra Leone flag, have stopped heading toward the US. Since November 1, 'Leruo' changed course toward Brazil, and 'Talisman' entered the Mediterranean Sea, currently located off the coast of Algeria and broadcasting a 'for orders' signal. Both vessels are under European Union sanctions. The third tanker—'Agioi Fanendes', owned by the Greek shipping company Eastern Mediterranean Maritime—continues moving toward the US, but is also transmitting a 'for orders' signal, indicating the absence of a confirmed buyer or discharge port.
Regulatory and Sanctions Risks
Kpler analyst Matt Smith noted that the tanker was scheduled to arrive in New York over the weekend, but given the 'apparent caution of American buyers due to regulatory, legislative, and sanctions risks,' it would not be surprising if this vessel also changes course, bypassing the US West Coast. Separately, it is noted that the sanctioned tanker 'Beast', owned by Seychelles-based companies, loaded in the Russian port of Primorsk on October 27 and continues its course toward the US Atlantic coast, making the logistics picture ambiguous.
Washington's Position and Congressional Pressure
Washington previously sought to present the deal as a tool to pressure Moscow. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright called the agreement a 'carrot' that could prompt Russia to scale down its war against Ukraine, emphasizing that sanctions on Russian oil remain in place and Moscow can only benefit from eased diesel restrictions if de-escalation occurs or a deal with Ukraine is reached. Meanwhile, a bill targeting the diesel deal has been introduced in the US Congress, and amid these signals, Brent crude rose to $110 per barrel for the first time since May.
Moscow's Reaction and ISW Assessment
In Russia, according to an Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report, authorities are seeking to reassure the public amid potential diesel supply disruptions. Russian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Alexander Novak stated that the export of Russian diesel fuel to the US will not disrupt the domestic market, after which he held a meeting with relevant ministers and oil company representatives, instructing them to step up measures to secure fuel supplies to the regions. ISW analysts believe that despite preventive steps, the Kremlin will prioritize fulfilling obligations to the US, intending to use the deal to advance its interests in the conflict with Ukraine.
Impact on Prices
The practical effect of the deal on the American market remains controversial: media previously reported that the diesel agreement concluded in early October has virtually failed to lower diesel prices in the US, with quotes slightly rising instead. The combination of factors—tanker course changes, the 'for orders' signal, sanctions restrictions, and pending legislation in Congress—creates risks that the agreement may never translate into actual deliveries, increasing uncertainty in the fuel market.
