August 19, 2026, Muscat/Washington. The situation in the Persian Gulf has reached a critical point. US President Donald Trump, on August 18, just one month after a similar warning, threatened military aggression against Oman once again. The cause of the escalation is Muscat's attempt to conclude a bilateral agreement with Iran on the joint management of the Strait of Hormuz, which Washington views as a direct threat to its geopolitical interests.
Dispute over strait sovereignty
The conflict is based on a fundamental disagreement between the US and Oman regarding the future shipping regime through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the White House administration, Oman is considering the possibility of introducing joint control over the route with Iran. For Washington, this is unacceptable as it would legitimize Tehran's role in determining the rules of passage for ships through the waterway, through which one-fifth of global oil trade passed before the conflict began.
Particular outrage in the US was caused by Oman's proposal to collect voluntary payments from transit ships. Even if these funds are intended to ensure security and environmental protection, Washington sees this as an attempt to bypass sanctions and create a precedent where Iran receives financial benefits from controlling the strait.
Exclusion of the US from the negotiation process
A key factor that provoked Trump's threat was the fact that Oman and Iran are conducting negotiations bypassing the US. After the collapse of direct dialogues between Washington and Tehran, Iran redirected its diplomatic efforts to Muscat. On August 17, Iran officially announced the achievement of an agreement on a new maritime route and the preparation of a joint statement.
Experts note that historically, Oman has acted as a mediator between the US and Iran, providing communication channels during crises. However, in the current situation, Muscat, in Washington's view, has effectively "sidelined" the US from decision-making regarding the security of one of the world's most important trade hubs.
Contradictory data
There is a significant gap between Oman's official position and the interpretation of events in Washington. Oman has not publicly stated its intention to jointly control the strait with Iran or introduce tolls for passage. Muscat traditionally emphasizes its neutrality and commitment to international law.
At the same time, sources in the US administration and regional officials close to the negotiations claim that the draft agreement includes precisely these points. Iran, for its part, states that it will not fully open the strait until the blockade is lifted and sanctions are lifted, creating a complex dilemma for mediators. The difference in versions indicates deep mistrust between partners.
Risks to global security
The threat of using force against a long-time ally — Oman — is unprecedented. In May 2026, Trump already stated that Oman "will act like everyone else, or we will have to blow them up." The repetition of this rhetoric in August indicates that Washington's patience has run out.
Professor Laleh Khalili from the University of Exeter notes that an agreement reached without US participation may signal the limits of Washington's influence in the region. If the US really takes military action against Oman, this could lead to a complete collapse of diplomatic efforts to open the strait and provoke a new phase of the war in the Persian Gulf.
