The return of civil aviation to Ukraine, according to industry experts, is unlikely to follow any ready-made scenario. In an exclusive piece for WAVE (RBC-Ukraine), the head of Join UP! Ukraine, Irina Mosulezna, emphasized that while international experience can provide important benchmarks, there are simply no direct analogues to the Ukrainian situation on the global stage. After the end of hostilities, the country will have to develop its own approach to the gradual restoration of flights, relying on the internal specifics of threats and infrastructure.
Why Israel is not a ready-made benchmark
Israel is often cited as an example of a country that continues to function, including its civil aviation, under conditions of constant security threats. However, as Mosulezna notes, the Ukrainian situation has fundamental differences. Israel has been building its security system, early warning mechanisms, and response infrastructure for decades. Even if Ukraine had similar systems, mechanically transferring the Israeli model would be impossible: the nature of the threats and the means used for attacks differ.
Middle Eastern and UAE models: where the analogy is appropriate
According to the expert, it is not entirely correct to compare Ukraine with Middle Eastern countries that temporarily restrict or resume air transport during specific escalations. There, the scale of risks is different, and such restrictions usually follow shorter cycles. The example of the UAE, which made tourism an important part of its economic strategy, may be more useful in terms of the role of tourism in economic recovery rather than as a ready-made model for aviation functioning during wartime.
Gradual return and working with passengers
If the security situation allows for the gradual return of civilian flights, the process will likely not be instantaneous. Initially, it will involve cautious and limited steps that can subsequently be scaled up depending on the situation. Carefully planned communication with passengers becomes particularly important: which airports will be operational, what restrictions will apply, how to check in, what happens in the event of an air raid alarm, and how to plan travel time.
Routes via neighboring countries will remain
The potential opening of Ukrainian airspace will not mean the immediate disappearance of routes via neighboring states. According to the expert, tour operators will continue to work with airports in Moldova, Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic, and other countries. The return of air travel will take time and coordinated work by all market participants: initially, these may be individual or limited flights, and subsequently—a wider network of destinations, if safe conditions allow.
Contradictory data
On the one hand, in the public discourse, Israel consistently appears as a 'working' example of aviation functioning under threat, and this analogy is most often offered as a template for Ukraine. On the other hand, the Israeli model itself in 2026 does not look like a stable support: against the backdrop of ongoing escalations in the Middle East—including strikes on targets in Lebanon, accusations against Israel of striking a Syrian military airfield (August 18, 2026), and escalation regarding Iran—even there, aviation and infrastructure risks remain volatile. Thus, the discrepancy lies in the fact that proponents of a direct analogy see Israel as proof of system resilience, whereas industry experts point to the fundamentally different nature of threats for Ukraine and the fact that none of the Middle Eastern models can be mechanically transferred.
