After more than four years without civil flights from Ukrainian airports, the very idea of restoring air traffic appears extremely symbolic: it brings back a sense of normalcy, where you no longer need to book a train or bus to a neighboring country to go on vacation, but can travel directly from your own airport. However, according to Iryna Mosulezna, Head of Join Up! Ukraine, the potential opening of the skies before the end of the war is unlikely to resemble a return to pre-war tourism. Most likely, this will not be a story about charter flights filling up resorts, but rather a very cautious, limited, and controlled launch of individual routes — and it is crucial to communicate this in advance so that the expectations of tourists, businesses, and the market do not diverge from the reality of the first stage.
Safety as the Primary Prerequisite, Not Just a Criterion
Ukrainian airspace has been closed to civil aviation since the first day of the full-scale invasion; therefore, in any discussion about resuming flights, safety remains the primary prerequisite, not just one of many criteria. The initial stage will likely involve numerous restrictions for airlines and airports: this concerns not only the technical readiness of the facilities and the willingness of carriers to return, but also permissible routes, flight schedules, operations within strictly defined intervals, the maximum number of aircraft allowed in the air simultaneously, and the airports' ability to respond quickly to potential air raids.
Capacity in the Context of Military Risks
A new parameter gains particular importance — airport capacity accounting for military risks. Now, it is not only about how many passengers a facility can serve efficiently per unit of time, but also about how many people can be quickly moved to shelters if the situation requires it. This is why a large tourist flow from Ukraine should not be expected at the start: a more realistic scenario involves individual scheduled flights, gradual testing and debugging of processes, and a very cautious increase in frequency. Tourist destinations may appear later, once it becomes clear what specific restrictions will apply and what the overall system capacity will be.
Western Airports and the Role of the State, Regulators, and Insurers
The decision to open specific airports is not a matter of tour operators' or airlines' wishes: it will depend on the state, defense forces, regulators, international partners, and the aviation insurance market. From a practical standpoint, it is logical to assume that in the early stages, airports located closer to the western border will have a better chance: the less time an aircraft spends in Ukrainian airspace, the lower the risks and the easier it is to plan a flight within established restrictions. Airports located further from the border may return to civil flights in subsequent stages, when conditions become more stable and predictable.
Logistics Through Neighboring Countries Will Not Automatically Cease
Even a partial opening of the skies does not mean the automatic cessation of the logistics already established through neighboring countries: over the past years, it has become understandable, familiar, and less stressful for Ukrainian tourists than at the beginning of the full-scale war. In fact, Ukrainian tourists have learned to travel without their own airports, with airports in neighboring countries becoming the main departure points. Chisinau has become a key hub: according to Join Up!™ internal statistics, more than 237,000 Ukrainian tourists used this airport last year. For comparison, Rzeszów airport, the second most popular according to the same data, was used by more than 50,000 tourists. Chisinau's advantage is relatively convenient logistics and usually faster border crossing, making Moldova a more practical option for tourists from the east, south, center, and partially Kyiv than traveling through a country under potential air raid alerts to the Polish border.
What This Means for Tourists and the Market
The conclusion of the expert assessment is that resuming flights is not an instant return to pre-war flows, but a multi-stage, managed process where safety is the priority, and tourist destinations appear only after restrictions and capacity are debugged. For the market, this is a signal for cautious planning, and for tourists, it means that the familiar logistics through Chisinau and Rzeszów will remain a working option throughout the transition period until the system is ready for a wider opening.
