A split in half: what the weather map looks like on September 12

On Saturday, September 12, weather conditions across Ukraine will be unevenly distributed: a significant part of the country will fall under the influence of a rain front, while the rest of the territory will retain dry and noticeably warm weather. This is reported by RBC-Ukraine, citing the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center. According to forecasters, the west, north, and most central regions (mainly during the day) will see variable cloudiness with clearings, with moderate and, in places, heavy rain, and thunderstorms are possible in some areas. This is the zone that will look "wet" on the day's map.

Across the rest of Ukraine, cloudiness will be variable, precipitation is mostly not expected, and temperatures will be noticeably higher than in the west and north: up to +25…+30°. The wind will remain predominantly north-easterly across the country, at 5–10 m/s, which does not promise sharp gusts but will accentuate the contrast between the warm dry zone and the rainy one.

Yellow danger level: where forecasters expect heavy rain

The bad weather over the weekend is no surprise: the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center has already declared a yellow danger level due to heavy rain. The list includes Lviv, Volyn, Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy oblasts. For residents of these regions, this means the risk of local flooding, reduced visibility on the roads, and the need to plan trips taking possible downpours into account. Kyiv Oblast, according to regional forecasts, also falls within the zone of cool and rainy weather.

Sunday: downpours shift south

The dynamics on the following day continue to "spill over" from the west and north to the south of the country. According to the forecast, on Sunday, September 13, downpours will cover Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts. Thus, the rain front will pass over most of the territory over the weekend, and residents of the southern regions should be prepared for a sharp deterioration in weather after a relatively dry day.

Climatic context: why sudden downpours hit harder

The episode of the country being sharply divided into dry and rainy parts fits into a broader climatic trend. Climatologist Sofiia Sadogurska has previously noted that Ukraine is warming faster than the global average, and the southern regions are increasingly threatened by water shortages and the drying up of small rivers. According to her, summer and early-summer heat is increasingly alternating with sudden downpours, which cause more damage than uniform prolonged rain: they quickly overload drainage, wash out roads, and increase the risk of local flooding. It is exactly this scenario that is unfolding in the west and north of the country on Saturday.

Contradictory data

Different outlets emphasize the weekend picture differently, and it is important for the reader to see both sides. On the one hand, a number of media outlets stress the arrival of "Indian summer" and rising temperatures, painting a picture of warm and dry weather. On the other — other publications and the hydrometeorological center itself emphasize instability: cyclonic activity, cool nights (in some zones with nighttime values in the single digits) and a yellow danger level due to rain. In fact, these versions are not mutually exclusive: warm +25…+30° are expected in the south and east, while in the west, north, and center a rainy and cooler regime dominates. The discrepancy lies in the emphasis and in which specific region is taken as the basis for the forecast, not in the figures themselves.