Autumn 2026 could become a turning point for the Ukrainian deposit market. According to Serhiy Mamedov, Vice President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks and Chairman of the Board of Globus Bank, in September the banking sector will shift to more active competition on two fronts — for depositors' funds and for quality borrowers. The most attractive hryvnia deposits could offer yields of up to 17.5–18% per annum, while average market rates will most likely remain in the 13.5–15% per annum range.
Context: the NBU policy rate and market structure
The key trigger for revising the yields on term deposits was the National Bank of Ukraine's raise of its policy rate to 15.5%. This level gives banks an additional incentive to make hryvnia deposits more attractive, since the cost of attracting funds is objectively rising. Today, 59 banks operate in the market with valid banking licenses, and open financial catalogs list more than 20 banks and over 200 current deposit programs. This fragmentation and variety of offerings create the conditions for price competition that, according to Mamedov's forecast, will become more pronounced in autumn, particularly in the term deposit segment.
Rate forecast: targeted growth rather than a broad reset
The baseline forecast suggests that average rates on hryvnia deposits in September 2026 will fall within the 13.5–15% per annum range. Individual banks seeking to attract stable hryvnia funding may offer higher-yielding products: with bonus conditions, rates could reach 17.5–18% per annum. Compared with summer figures, some financial institutions will most likely increase yields by roughly 0.3–0.5 percentage points. Thus, the increase will be more targeted and tied to competitive bidding for a specific depositor, rather than a sharp across-the-board reset of terms across the market.
What to consider when choosing a deposit
Serhiy Mamedov emphasizes that customers should look not only at the nominal size of the interest. The term of the placement, the ability to top up the deposit during its term, early termination conditions, and additional bonuses that a bank may offer upon meeting certain conditions are all of significant importance. It is precisely the combination of these parameters, rather than a single rate figure, that determines the real yield for the depositor and the attractiveness of a given product.
Impact on the cost of lending
Changes in the deposit market will inevitably be reflected in the cost of bank financing. Under the baseline scenario, rates on standard loans could rise by roughly 0.5–1 percentage point. At the same time, Mamedov does not expect a contraction in lending: banks will continue to compete for creditworthy clients, using their own programs, partner offers, and special terms for certain categories of borrowers. In his assessment, shrinking the loan portfolio is not on the sector's agenda.
The autumn dilemma: balancing deposits and loans
"In effect, in autumn banks will find themselves between two tasks: on the one hand, they need to offer depositors a sufficient yield so that hryvnia savings remain attractive, and on the other, they must not make loans too expensive for clients. It is precisely the search for this balance that will largely determine the situation in the banking market," the banker summed up. Thus, September 2026 will be a period of fine calibration for the Ukrainian banking sector: sufficiently aggressive competition for funding on the one hand, and a restrained rise in lending rates on the other.
