On November 3, midterm elections to the US Congress kicked off, determining which party will control both chambers of the legislature during the final two years of Donald Trump's presidency. As RBC-Ukraine notes in its article "A Test for Trump and Risks for Ukraine: How US Congressional Elections Will Shift the Balance of Power", the election results could significantly influence the political landscape surrounding Ukraine: if successful, Democrats will gain additional leverage to pressure the president and advance aid to Kyiv.
Tools of Pressure: Hearings, Investigations, Legislation
Volodymyr Dubovyk, Director of the Center for International Studies at Odesa National University, explained that if Democrats secure a majority in the House of Representatives, they will be able to influence the White House's stance on the war, Ukraine, and Russia to a certain extent. While foreign policy formally remains within the president's purview, Congress holds its own levers. According to the expert, "we will certainly see hearings, investigations in relevant committees, and administration officials summoned to such events," and it is there that issues related to Ukraine will be gathered: "in particular, regarding the events of recent weeks, Starlink, the transfer of intelligence data, the diesel deal, and so on." A separate track could involve investigating the economic contacts between Trump's inner circle and Moscow.
Return to Ukraine Support Bills
According to Dubovyk's assessment, the House of Representatives could return to considering legislative initiatives supporting Ukraine. "In principle, the House already voted on a Ukraine support bill a few months ago, it just didn't go any further. They might return to it, initiate a new one, or even revise the Graham-Blumenthal act with mandatory sanctions and aid to Ukraine, though the latter is unlikely," the expert added. He emphasized that a Democratic victory does not mean an automatic shift in Trump's course: the president, in his view, is unlikely to revise his approach, while Democrats are more likely to criticize the administration more actively and use the Ukraine issue for political pressure, not necessarily out of pro-Ukrainian motives.
The "Trade-off" of Investigations and the Dual-Chamber Control Scenario
A potential "trade-off" is also possible, where Democrats might be willing to exchange certain investigations into the Trump administration for increased support for Ukraine; such arrangements, according to Dubovyk, are not unusual when Congress and the White House are controlled by different parties. The expert also does not believe that left-wing party members are capable of significantly weakening its pro-Ukrainian stance: progressives, in his estimation, are unlikely to want or be able to "blow up" the general course. A more significant scenario would be Democrats winning a majority in the Senate as well: control over both chambers would simplify the advancement of bills, including additional aid to Ukraine. Theoretically, such a configuration would also ease impeachment procedures, though according to Dubovyk, there are no signs yet that Democrats plan to use this mechanism.
NATO Concerns and the Risk of Reduced Support
Against the backdrop of the vote, the White House is reportedly already seeking ways to implement Trump's agenda bypassing lawmakers. In turn, NATO fears that a possible Republican defeat could provoke new attacks by the US president on the Alliance, a reduction of the US military contingent in Europe, and restrictions on support for Ukraine. An additional factor of uncertainty is the composition of the new Congress: some lawmakers who supported Kyiv are not running for re-election, others lost their primaries or risk losing their seats, which could reduce the number of Ukraine supporters in the chambers.
