The US-Iran conflict, which began with US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran on February 28, has turned into one of the most profitable episodes for the American oil sector in recent years. Estimates based on the earnings of more than 50 of the largest US oil companies show that combined profits between April and September could reach up to $130 billion, nearly triple the figure for the same period in 2025. Behind this macroeconomic growth, however, lies a noticeable rise in fuel prices for millions of American families and mounting political pressure on President Donald Trump's administration ahead of the midterm elections.
Triple Growth: Record-Breaking Figures
According to data cited by the New York Times, the majority of the 50+ largest companies included in the calculation operate in oil exploration or refining. By comparison, in 2025 their combined profit for the same period was about $47 billion, when oil prices were lower amid the initial fallout of the trade war. Analysts emphasize that even the record $130 billion falls short of 2022 levels, when oil prices spiked after the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The average US oil price for April-September 2026 is estimated at around $90 per barrel — lower than the roughly $100 per barrel seen in the same period of 2022.
Profit Mechanism: Refining and Supply Shortages
The structure of profit growth is uneven. Oil refining companies improved their financial results primarily due to damage inflicted on several fuel-producing facilities in the Middle East and Russia during hostilities, which reduced global supply. Upstream companies, in turn, boosted revenues through higher oil prices. A key factor was the severe disruption of Middle Eastern production and exports following the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks by Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen on Saudi Arabian oil facilities, including a fire at a Saudi Aramco facility south of Riyadh on October 3.
Giants' Reports: Exxon and Chevron at Historic Highs
On October 30, the two largest US oil companies — Exxon Mobil and Chevron — announced twofold and threefold increases in third-quarter profits respectively, attributing this to improved refining performance; these are their highest results in many years. A broader international cross-section confirms the same dynamic: according to data gathered by Anadolu Agency, the combined profits of the industry's top nine companies — US-based ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips, Britain's Shell and bp, France's TotalEnergies, Italy's Eni, Norway's Equinor, and Saudi Aramco — rose 56.9% year-on-year in the first half to reach $152.8 billion, an increase of $55.4 billion from a year earlier.
The Consumer Price: $1,100 Per Family
While corporations record historic highs, American households bear the brunt of rising prices. According to an analysis by Brown University's Climate Solutions Lab, since the start of airstrikes on Iran on February 28, Americans have spent an additional $147 billion on gasoline and diesel — equivalent to more than $1,100 per family. A telling indicator was seen in May at a Chevron gas station in Pasadena, California, where the minimum gas price was $6.59 per gallon.
Political Resonance and Washington's Steps
Fuel price increases are directly influencing voter decisions ahead of the November 3 midterm elections: according to a Gallup poll conducted last week, 72% of respondents called gasoline prices an "extremely" important factor in voting. To mitigate the impact, Trump lifted sanctions on Russian diesel fuel — at least three tankers carrying diesel have already left Russian ports and are heading to the US. At the same time, Trump urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to halt attacks on Russian oil refineries, though Russia claims Kyiv has ignored the call.
