The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump is preparing an agreement granting American companies long-term access to a portion of Venezuela's oil reserves. According to sources, the document is in its final stage of development and could be signed in the near future; its essence is to provide the United States with a guaranteed supply of Venezuelan crude and to open up a group of fields within the country for development by American producers. The negotiations, sources report, are being conducted at the highest level of the two governments, and the first public confirmation of their progress was Axios's report that U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright plans to visit Caracas as early as next week.
Legal Model and the List of 17 Fields
The legal structure under consideration is the leasing of oil plots followed by an auction or tender, at the end of which each field is allocated among American companies. Reuters managed to see a list of 17 plots that may fall under the agreement: it includes both new areas in the vast Orinoco oil belt and already developed territories of Lake Maracaibo. Part of the latter, according to the outlet, is currently controlled by a small Chinese company that received its contract during the rule of Nicolás Maduro, making a potential change of operator a sensitive issue for Beijing.
Possible Venezuelan Withdrawal from OPEC
Meanwhile, as Bloomberg reported, Caracas is considering the possibility of leaving OPEC, thereby strengthening its relations with Washington. Venezuela is one of the founding members of the cartel, dating back to 1960, yet for many years it has effectively failed to meet the production quotas assigned to it due to the deep decline and corruption in the state oil sector. For the cartel, the loss of one of its founders would be a symbolic and structural blow, even though the country's actual contribution to the market balance has long been minimal.
Constitutional and Legal Barriers
The key obstacle remains the law. Venezuela's current hydrocarbons legislation does not provide for the leasing of oil plots, and the constitution assigns the sector's core activity exclusively to the state. Although the recently reformed oil law allows field development through joint ventures and production-sharing agreements, for decades the country's government has not allowed foreign producers to book Venezuelan reserves on their own balance sheets. According to expert estimates, the upcoming agreement could trigger constitutional disputes and face serious legal challenges in an attempt to legalize the leasing model.
Geopolitical Context and Domestic Pressure in the US
Since the United States seized and removed former President Nicolás Maduro from power in January, Washington has consistently sought to secure a stable flow of Venezuelan crude for American refineries while simultaneously stimulating investment in the devastated energy sector, which currently produces about 1.25 million barrels per day. In the summer, Secretary of State Marco Rubio received unprecedented powers in Venezuela, and the U.S. established decisive influence over the country's financial system, oil industry, and state institutions. Domestically, the initiative is also driven by pressure ahead of the midterm elections: the administration hopes to ease rising gasoline prices through cheaper supplies and to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which currently holds about 290 million barrels — just 41% of its total capacity. Earlier, Trump also suggested that a possible military operation in Cuba could be carried out following the model of Washington's recent actions in Venezuela.
Contradictory Data
The accounts of participants and observers diverge on several points. First, on the status of the document: some publications (including RBC) frame the event as the already imminent "control" of key fields by the United States, whereas TSN and the original sources speak of an agreement that is being "prepared" and "could be signed," i.e., an intention rather than a fact. Second, on the legal model: the proposed leasing is not directly provided for by either the constitution or the current hydrocarbons legislation, while the reformed law permits only joint ventures and production-sharing agreements — experts note that this could turn into a constitutional crisis. Third, on the OPEC withdrawal: Bloomberg characterizes it as a "considered" possibility, not a decision already made, and no official source in Caracas has confirmed such a decision.