At 7:00 PM Eastern Time (2:00 AM Kyiv time), voting concluded in six US states: Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, and Indiana. In Florida, polls closed in several counties, while voting in the remaining states will continue until 8:00 PM Eastern Time (3:00 AM Kyiv time). Early and incomplete results have emerged in a few key races for Senate seats and gubernatorial positions. Only a small fraction of ballots has been counted, making all data preliminary, and no winners have been declared in these races yet.
Poll Closings and Early Data
Early figures from the race in Georgia show that incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is leading, but the share of counted ballots is close to zero, rendering any conclusions premature. This is why observers emphasize that this is merely an initial snapshot of the night rather than final outcomes. Florida is known for counting votes quickly, so the results from its counties will serve as one of the first signals of how the election night is shaping up overall.
Key Senate Races
Georgia is considered one of the most critical battles for the Senate: incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff faces Republican Mike Collins. Ossoff is the only Democratic senator running for re-election in a state where Donald Trump won in 2024, making this seat a top target for Republicans. In South Carolina, Democrat Annie Andrews is competing against interim Republican Senator Darlin Graham, who inherited the seat after the death of Lindsey Graham. Andrews is attempting to become the first Democratic female senator from the state in a decade. According to average poll data from October 27 cited by the University of Virginia's analytical project Sabato's Crystal Ball, Graham held 47% and Andrews 45.2%; last week, analysts shifted their forecast in favor of Democrats, though Andrews's chances overall remain low.
Georgia Governor and Florida Redistricting
Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms is running for Governor of Georgia. If victorious, she would become the state's first Black and first female governor, as well as the first Black female governor in U.S. history. In Florida this year, Republicans redrew congressional district boundaries, targeting four Democratic seats in the House of Representatives—the 9th, 14th, 22nd, and 25th districts. According to calculations, within these new boundaries in 2024, Trump would have won these districts by a margin of 9 to 18 points.
What This Means for Ukraine
The November 3 midterm elections will determine how much power Republicans and Trump himself retain. Former Ukrainian Ambassador to the US and France Oleh Shamshur told RBC-Ukraine that even a Democratic victory would not alter American policy toward Kyiv. In his estimation, Ukraine faces two difficult years, and the diplomat calls the upcoming elections in France, where Marine Le Pen could win, a major risk for aid. The chances of both parties and possible scenarios for Ukraine after the elections are detailed in an analytical article by RBC-Ukraine.
