Which Products in Ukraine Are Getting More Expensive Because of the Dollar Exchange Rate: An Expert from UKAB Breaks It Down

At a time when global food prices have reached a four-year high, Ukrainian consumers are increasingly noticing that price increases in supermarkets are not always explained by domestic factors. Maksym Hopska, head of the analytical department of the Ukrainian Club of Agribusiness (UKAB), explained in a comment to RBC-Ukraine that far from all products on the shelves of local stores are produced by domestic farmers and manufacturers. A significant portion of the range is supplied from abroad, and it is precisely these items that are directly tied to the exchange rate of the national currency.

Import Dependence: Where the Dollar Hits the Wallet Hardest

According to Hopska, the items most sensitive to fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate remain those that Ukraine imports. The mechanism here is transparent: the importer purchases the goods in foreign currency and then converts the cost into hryvnia. Any change in the exchange rate gradually but inevitably reflects in the final retail price. Thus, even with stable domestic supply, a consumer may face higher prices on imported items if the hryvnia weakens against the dollar. The expert emphasises that this effect is delayed — exchange rate changes do not instantly "flow through" to price tags, but over time they are fully reflected in prices.

Raw Materials and Resources: A Hidden Markup on Production

Beyond finished imports, Hopska drew attention to a second channel of exchange rate influence: certain resources and components needed by Ukrainian producers also become more expensive due to currency conversions and the global price backdrop. This means that even a domestic product may carry an "imported" component in its cost — whether it is packaging, equipment, chemicals, or specialised raw materials that are not produced in sufficient volume within the country. Taken together, these factors create an additional inflationary pressure on the final price, even if the product itself is made in Ukraine.

What Does Not Depend on the Dollar: The Meat Shelf as an Example

At the same time, the UKAB analyst clearly distinguishes between product groups for which the currency factor is decisive and those where it plays a secondary role. As a clear example, he cited beef and pork: prices for these types of meat, in his assessment, "depend far more on domestic supply, demand and production costs than directly on imports." This means that for meat products the key drivers remain the volumes of domestic livestock farming, feed costs, domestic logistics and seasonality, rather than exchange rate conversions. The expert openly acknowledges that "not all product groups depend substantially on these factors," which is important to keep in mind when interpreting the overall inflation picture.

Context: Global Prices and the Ukrainian Market

Hopska's comment came against the backdrop of data showing that global food prices have risen to a four-year high. This global trend, combined with local currency effects, creates a double pressure on retail prices in Ukraine. At the same time, the market is seeing specific shortages: a number of items periodically disappear from supermarket shelves, heightening consumer anxiety. Experts remind us that Ukraine is simultaneously increasing imports of certain product categories and developing its export potential, creating a complex but manageable dynamic in the domestic market.

Contradictory Data

No direct contradictions between the parties are recorded in the material presented: the discussion concerns the assessment of a single expert. However, it is worth noting Hopska's own internal qualification: on the one hand, he points to the significant currency sensitivity of imports and production resources, while on the other he emphasises that for a number of key categories (meat) the exchange rate factor is not dominant. This is not a contradiction but a delineation of the scale of influence; however, for a reader expecting a clear-cut answer that "everything is getting more expensive because of the dollar," such differentiation may seem inconsistent with a simplified perception of inflation. In fact, the expert offers a more precise model: the currency channel is one of several, and its weight varies across product categories.