“Score Leveled”: ISW on How the AFU Seized the Initiative on the Front in 2026

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), in a fresh report cited by RBC-Ukraine, records a turning point in the dynamics of combat operations: at the end of 2025 and throughout 2026, Ukrainian military forces, for the first time since the Kursk offensive operation of August 2024, have been able not merely to defend but to successfully counter the initiative of Russian troops and, in places, seize it. According to the analysts' assessment, since March the Russian army's net territorial gains have been reduced to virtually zero, while Ukrainian forces have shifted to active counteroffensive operations on several sectors of the front.

Seizing the Initiative: ISW's Key Conclusion

The main thesis of the report is that the balance along the line of contact has shifted in Kyiv's favor. If the initiative had previously belonged steadily to the Russian side, then now, according to ISW data, Ukrainian forces have not only halted the enemy's advance but also disrupted a number of its operational plans. The analysts emphasize that this is the first sustained episode in nearly two years in which the AFU are not simply holding their positions but are recovering lost territory and dictating the tempo of battle.

Counteroffensives on Three Directions

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on the Kupyansk, Oleksandrivka, and Lyman axes. On the Kupyansk sector, the report states, the AFU recaptured lost positions in the city and its surroundings and repelled further attempts by Russian troops to seize them again. On the other axes, the actions of Ukrainian military units allowed them to eliminate a significant Russian salient that posed a threat to the northern flank of Sloviansk and to the entire Donetsk defensive belt. Some summaries based on the ISW report cite a figure of dozens of liberated settlements.

Where Russia Is Still Advancing

Despite the overall shift, ISW notes that Russian troops are maintaining local successes. The most significant, though limited, results, according to the institute, have been achieved in Konotop and its surroundings. Russians have also advanced east of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, although on these axes they have to exert considerable effort to sustain their offensive momentum. A similar picture is observed on other sectors of the front as well, which is why the analysts characterize the situation as dynamic and the struggle for the initiative as ongoing.

Pressure on the Kremlin and the Mobilization Question

Against the backdrop of problems with advancing, Russian commanders are reportedly exerting pressure on Vladimir Putin, demanding a large-scale mobilization. Presumably, the Russian command is trying in this way to restore the army's ability to capture territory and hold the offensive initiative. At the same time, as ISW notes, it remains unclear to what extent a new wave of mobilization could actually change the balance of forces on the battlefield, should such a decision be made.

Symbolic Support and the Buildup of Forces

In parallel, Russia is resorting to increasingly public and symbolic ways of supporting its military: the Russian Orthodox Church, according to reports, sent to the front a fragment of the relics of the medieval Prince Dmitry Donskoy, stating that the relic should “spiritually strengthen” Russian soldiers and boost their morale. At the operational level, ISW data indicate that Russia is building up personnel and equipment on the Lyman axis, preparing for a possible intensification of offensive operations.

Contradictory Data

The assessments of the parties and the very structure of the report contain nuances that are important to distinguish. On the one hand, ISW states that since March Russia's net territorial gains have been reduced to virtually zero and that the initiative has been seized by the AFU. On the other hand, the same report acknowledges that Russian troops continue to achieve limited but significant results in Konotop and east of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, and are also building up their grouping on the Lyman axis. Thus, the overall picture of “seizing the initiative” coexists with the enemy's real local successes on certain sectors. Moreover, the analysts explicitly call the impact of a possible new mobilization on the course of combat operations uncertain, so the long-term forecast for the front remains open.