By the end of 2026, the cost of bread in Ukraine may increase, even despite the fact that raw materials on the domestic market have become cheaper. As industry experts note, the cheaper wheat and flour do not guarantee a decrease in the price of finished products on store shelves, since producers and processors simultaneously face rising other costs — for fuel, electricity, logistics, and wages. This is stated in an RBC-Ukraine article dedicated to food price forecasts until the end of 2026.
Why cheap grain does not make bread cheaper
Denys Marchuk, Deputy Chairman of the Ukrainian Agrarian Council (UAC), explained that even the reduction of wheat prices within the country and its processing into flour does not necessarily affect the final price of bread. According to him, the share of grain in the cost of bread is no more than 12%, and if we take into account already processed raw materials — flour, — this figure does not exceed 30%. The rest of the expenses go to logistics, energy, and salaries, and it is these components that largely form the final cost of products. Therefore, savings on raw materials are compensated by other expense items, primarily fuel and electricity.
Energy sector and the consequences of attacks on infrastructure
Damage to energy infrastructure remains an additional factor pressing on costs. Because of them, producers and processors are forced to use alternative power sources, which increases expenses. President of the Ukrainian Bakers Association Yuriy Duchenko pointed out that electricity from generators costs enterprises about five times more than grid power, and bakeries additionally spend funds on repairs after shelling, purchasing generators, and protective structures. According to his estimate, the rise in fuel prices increased the logistics component in the cost of a loaf of bread by 60 kopecks, whereas cheaper flour should have lowered the price by only 50 kopecks.
How much the price can grow
Estimates of the scale of growth differ. Denys Marchuk in a comment to RBC-Ukraine spoke about a possible increase in the price of bread by another 10% until the end of 2026, while Yuriy Duchenko named a range of 5–10% provided that military risks do not intensify. At the same time, a number of publications based on AI service estimates cite significantly higher figures — from 30% to 60%, but such forecasts are not official statements of industry associations. For reference: at the end of September, the average consumer price of rye-wheat bread was about 60 hryvnias per kilogram, and a 500-gram loaf — approximately 35 hryvnias.
What restrains price growth
One of the factors restraining a sharp price increase remains market competition. In addition, due to difficulties with grain exports, its price on the domestic market has decreased by about 10% compared to June, which is partially offset by other expenses. Thus, even with a decrease in prices for certain types of raw materials, the total costs of producers can keep the cost of finished products at an elevated level until the end of 2026.
